Just like in other European countries, the British potato stock is also very low this season; the buyers therefore try to use the remaining barrels sparingly. Only in the disastrously low harvest in 2012 was the volume even smaller, although the export engine was running at full speed. How is that now?
AHDB Potato, the government agency in the British potato sector, calculated that on April 1, 980.000 tons of ware potatoes were still in storage. That is 25% less than last year and 13% less than the 5-year average. However, after the 2013 and 2015 harvests, the volume was at the same level and the extremely wet 2012 harvest was even lower.
More table potatoes
Since the previous measurement (February 1), 860.000 tons of potatoes have been delivered by British growers. That is 13% less than the average of these 8 weeks. Half of all potatoes in stock are table potatoes for domestic consumption. The stock of table potatoes is even higher than in other years.
The stock of French fries potatoes is slightly lower, but this is in line with other years when potatoes were scarce. The British chip sector is stable. The market segment 'fresh fries and bulk packages' fluctuates the most; Here the stock is approximately 15% lower. A segment that is almost entirely in the hands of the grower and is not tied to contracts. Growers have taken advantage of the demand and sold well.
No repeat of 2012
After the United Kingdom saw a large part of its harvest drown in 2012, a disastrously low harvest followed; the lowest since 1976, and 2018 did not exceed that either. What followed was a gigantic export from the mainland. The Netherlands exported 2012 tons of potatoes to the island in the 2013/127.500 season up to and including March. For the 2018 harvest, this remains at 8.300 tons.
The British potato sector is a special sector. The country is still included in the EU-5, but is a world in itself; the influence is small, especially in the field of French fries potatoes. After Brexit, the market will probably only drift further. After 2 years of strong declines, the area stabilized in 2017 and 2018. Currently, such an area seems to fit the market well.
Export Opportunities
In years with a shortage, Dutch exports benefit from demand, although the volumes are no longer huge. The British fresh market in particular imports potatoes from the continent. Imports of French fries potatoes for frozen French fries production are relatively small.
It remains to be seen whether the British will come knocking en masse for potatoes in the final phase of the season. Apart from whether free product is available at all, more factors play a role. There are still relatively many potatoes in stock in Scotland, which supplies the English table market.
The planting season has started smoothly and early, so the new potato harvest is expected to arrive early. The drought is particularly an issue in Eastern England. There is a lot of irrigation, but water supplies are low. The planting of the main harvest is now well advanced or completed everywhere. The major growers hope to complete the work this month.
Transformation of a sector
In 10 years, the potato sector in the country has been transformed, mainly due to economies of scale. The acreage decreased and the number of growers fell sharply. A group of 600 growers has half of the UK's acreage in hands. Small growers in particular have stopped en masse in the past 10 years. It is striking that the number of companies has increased by 100 to 300 hectares, but that little growth is noticeable above that.
These large companies are highly specialized. The best soils and permanent irrigation provide additional yield security. The grower sorts, packages and delivers his product to the supermarket chains himself and has stable delivery contracts. This system persists due to a demanding domestic market.
Implications for demand
The small grower, with an area of up to 30 hectares, traditionally sorted many potatoes for home sales and sale to the 10.000 'fish & chip shops' on the island. A significant decrease is noticeable here. Not only has the number of shops serving this English dish been halved, but the growers are also stopping. As a result, the potato market is consolidating and import demand is also decreasing.