Will potato acreage in Poland fall again in 2019?

According to final figures from the Polish agricultural institute IERiGÅ», the total ware potato area in 2018 amounted to 316.000 hectares. This is 4% less than the year before. During the season there was talk of a decline of 10% to 15%. The average hectare yield was 24,2 tons per hectare, which is good for a harvest of 7,65 million tons. The drought has had a significant impact, because last summer IERiGÅ» still had 8,5 million tons of potatoes.

Last harvest
Compared to the 5-year average, the volume of 7,65 million tons would differ by only 300.000 tons. The sector itself thinks this is much more. The contrast with the 2017 harvest is great. Then, according to government figures, 9,72 million tons were harvested. The French fries and potato chip potato segment amounted to 2,33 million tons last year. In addition, approximately 1,75 million tons are for the table potato market, together accounting for 4 million tons of sales. The remaining tons are seed potatoes, feed potatoes and hobby cultivation for own consumption.

A preliminary estimate for the 2019 harvest year is 300.000 hectares. This represents a decrease of approximately 5%. In theory, this results in an average potato harvest of 8,8 million tons. This is comparable to the 2016 harvest year. Of these, almost 2,5 million tons of potatoes are intended for processors.

Correct numbers?
Insiders doubt the accuracy of these figures. They calculate an area of ​​300.000 hectares and only 6,5 million tons of potatoes for the 2018 harvest. According to these insiders, 3,5 million tons are produced and 3,5 million tons are processed into fries and other potato products. The remaining volume is feed and seed potatoes. They estimate that the area for 2019 will decrease to 280.000 hectares, yielding 7,5 million tons. Of this, 3,5 million tons are for the processors.

Only in March and early April did market prices in Poland start to rise significantly, although the price levels of the Netherlands and Belgium have not been reached. Polish buyers often do not have the money and the supermarkets are filled with potatoes from France, Egypt, Spain or Italy. Vegetables and onions are extremely expensive this season. Only a few growers have been able to benefit from a high free potato price. There was no proper long-term storage, or kilos that could be freely sold were simply not available. This was especially the case with chip potato growers.

Dry start
Planting is almost complete in Poland, only some planting still needs to be done in the north. This concerns seed potatoes, more than half of which is in the ground. The weather is comparable to the Netherlands. After the warm days around Easter, it is cold for this time of year. Rain is now the crucial factor, especially in the west of Poland it is dry. Sugar beets and onions also suffer from drift and feeding damage due to the persistently strong wind.

The stories about frost damage around Easter vary. Some speak of significant damage, even under fleece, while others believe that there are virtually no problems. The sector was worried in May, when heavy night frost was predicted. In the end, the frost wasn't too bad. The early plots, which are now in a sensitive stage, have experienced little to no damage.

Consequences for the 2019 harvest
Poland has had an extremely dry autumn, winter and spring. There was hardly any snow, so soil supplies were not replenished. Insiders indicate that the situation is currently much more dire than 1 year earlier. There was sufficient moisture then, after the very wet autumn in 2017. It is extremely dry throughout the country. Small, local rain showers have provided short-term relief, but a few millimeters have evaporated quickly. If it remains dry, this will have enormous consequences for all crops and certainly for potatoes.

The sector specialists expect the downward trend in the area to continue in the coming years. Poland has 300.000 hectares of potatoes for 40 million inhabitants. For comparison: Germany has 80 million inhabitants and 250.000 hectares. Insiders predict that the area will decrease to 250.000 hectares in the coming years. At the same time, production per hectare is increasing, mainly due to the introduction of new and better varieties. The share of chip potatoes continues to increase, while table potato cultivation continues to decline.