Cold weather makes market even more nervous

Due to the above, a delay in the growth of the early potatoes and a delay in the transition to new potatoes appear imminent. This is precisely the period when the shortage is greatest. In other words: the challenges caused by the long and dry summer (with regard to the 2018 harvest) do not seem to end with the start of the 2019 harvest.

Irrigating plots
On the other hand, drought appears to play a less important role. This is because irrigation is possible in most early growing areas. Drought does not yet play a real role with regard to the main harvest either. If there is already drought, this can be beneficial for tuber formation. This makes the crops more resilient when summer does strike.

Fixed market
The mood in the current physical market can be described as fixed. There are still just over 2 weeks to go before the June 2019 contract is settled. Settlement is expected to take place well above the €31 level. This is based on the expectation of the cash settlement of Thursday, May 23, which will probably amount to approximately €31. Afterwards there will be two more adjustments.

All quotations required for the cash settlement increase significantly. For example, on Tuesday, May 21, the French RNM quoted €35 for Fontane (32 millimeters upwards), which is €2 more than 1 week earlier. PotatoNL recorded as much as €2 for category 40, which was also used in the composition of the cash settlement.

Don't flinch
The potato processors (mainly in the Netherlands and Belgium) have not budged so far and have made do with offers of €30 for Fontane. In France, processors are also said to be paying more, which explains the high RNM rating.

In short: there is great tension on the potato market. The driving demand mainly comes from this from exports. The only question now is: how long can the export flame be kept burning?