Summer rally on potato futures market

The above just shows how crucial these weeks are in determining the direction for the rest of the season. Weeks 25 to 27 determine the direction and are mainly controlled by the weather reports and subsequent growing conditions.

Cold start
The start of the season was perhaps a bit too cold, but in recent weeks there has clearly been a growing weather type. In general, the potato crops are developing well after the rainfall in recent weeks. There has been sufficient fall on most potato plots in the most important European potato areas.

There is some water damage in England, but in Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands the growing conditions are excellent. Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe reportedly need water, because there is still talk of persistent drought.

Drought
The turning point on the futures market was caused by a drier and especially hot weather forecast. It will be scorching hot next week, and there doesn't seem to be any large amounts of water falling in the next 14 days. Heat stress can also cause growth retardation. Last year's experience also causes nervousness in the market. In addition, many growers complain about little moisture in the soil. This also means that next week could well become the referee for the rest of the season. Will the heat and drought continue, or will this alternate with precipitation?

The analysis of various weather images shows that this season is very similar to the years 1994, 1995 and 2016. Where the ball (potato) ultimately rolls (in terms of price formation) is still a difficult story. The increase in the area of ​​the EU-5 and the precipitation in the first half of June do not provide a particularly positive starting point. In terms of expectations, the market is now 2-0 behind. However, to get to 2-2 or 2-3, a 'really' dry period is required.