Black Friday for potato futures market

The situation in the field is deteriorating by the week. However, the market does not (yet) seem to want to break through the €17 level. What is the difference with last season?

1. First of all, the European potato area is larger than last year.
2. In addition, the crop is in significantly better shape so far than last year.
3. The tuber development is also further along than last year.
4. The weather conditions have so far been more favorable than last year. This is mainly due to the lower temperatures
5. More precipitation fell in the months of May and June than in 2018.
6. A lot was invested in irrigation last winter. 

Can price increase?
However, there are also a number of factors that can also ensure a higher market price this season:

1. The soil moisture is extremely low, making the moisture deficiency more serious than last year.
2. In the absence of precipitation, irrigation bans will follow more quickly.
3. The stock of old harvest has been completely used up, while last season there were still 34 old potatoes until week XNUMX.
4. French fries stocks have been reduced to a minimum until this year.
5. The early potatoes are disappointing in terms of yield, especially in Germany.

Precipitation deficiency
The precipitation deficit is clearly smaller than last year, although the soil moisture deficits have not yet been sufficiently resolved. Growers report that the soil is (very) dry, especially in the east of the Netherlands. The crops there are already showing signs of drought. This also applies to the growing areas in Northern and Eastern Germany. Further in the east (e.g. Poland), summer also hits hard, mainly due to persistently dry and warm weather.

For Friday, July 5, the weather forecast indicates that in the next 14 days 
no significant precipitation will fall. The fear that precipitation may occur in the coming period makes speculators in particular very cautious and capricious in their trading.

Market is searching
The potato market is looking for confirmation about persistent drought and the associated yield loss. While in the past the futures market sometimes wanted to anticipate possible shortages, the credo now seems to be; first see and then act on it.