Potato market postpones choosing direction

The direction is primarily based on the European area (especially the EU-5 countries) and the previous and current growing seasons. In 2017, for example, there was an increase in the area and the growing conditions were perfect, resulting in a futures market that was already at €29 at the end of week 11,50.

Last season there was another increase in the area in Europe, but it was an extreme growing season, mainly due to the drought, with the well-known result regarding prices. The jump last year was made in week 28. This season everything is different, at least if we look at the moment of choosing direction.

Drought not an issue for the whole of Europe
Once again the European area has been expanded and once again it is a theme. Yet the drought is not an issue for the whole of Europe. Because the perception of whether or not there is a drought by those involved in the market differs considerably, the market has remained stuck between an average of €15,00 and €17,00 in recent weeks. The tendency to drop through the €15,00 level remains strong.

On Friday afternoon (July 12), the €15,00 barrier seemed to be broken again, but the closing price was slightly higher (€15,50). The number of contracts on the futures market in recent weeks has been considerable, even more than 600 contracts on Friday. The daily traded volume within only a limited price range (roughly between €14,50 and €17,50 in recent weeks), also indicates that the market is desperately looking for the right direction this season.

Looking at the 2015 vintage
Will it be a 2017 harvest year with market prices lower than €10? Or can an average market price above the €20 level be expected again, as in the 2016 and 2018 harvest years? A year with a price range between €15,00 and €20,00 in the coming season cannot be ruled out either. To do this, we must look at the 2015 harvest year, when the futures market settled the April 2016 contract at 15,20 euros.