The USDA has released preliminary figures for the potato area in the United States. This shows that the share of early potatoes in particular is increasing. The main crop for French fries processing remains stable, although the yield is not due to the weather.
The USDA estimates the area of ware potatoes in the United States this year at 967.500 acres. This amounts to over 390.000 hectares. This means that the total area is almost the same as in the 2018 harvest year. However, the area is smaller than in previous years.
Little ones grow
Potato growing is dominated by 2 states: Idaho and Washington. Together they account for almost 195.000 hectares, or 50% of the total area. The ministry expects that the area here will remain unchanged. In percentage terms, the largest growth is in Texas, where the area increases by almost 40% to 8.000 hectares. This makes Texas one of the smallest potato growing states. Florida is recording 15% growth, but is also a small player. The biggest decliner is Minnesota with 7% to 16.500 hectares, but this street also plays a modest role in potatoes.
In the sunny southern states, the potato area is growing because, according to the USDA, more early potatoes are being grown. However, analysts question the figures, which are usually not 100% reliable. Especially because detailed information per breed is still lacking. The variety data that are available shows that the Russet area is decreasing slightly (-4.000 hectares) and that yellow-fleshed potatoes in particular are expanding in size.
Grow potato chips
The Texan growth of 2.200 hectares is due to the expansion of the acreage of potato chips. Growers have now started harvesting table potatoes. In California, more has been planted because water is more available for irrigation. Here too, the area of potato chips is increasing. Due to later planting, frost damage and heavy rain, the current yields are 20% lower than average. However, this does not apply to all growing areas in the state.
In Indaho, insiders expect a slight decrease in acreage. The ministry has kept the figures unchanged, but a rounding difference could already be the cause of this in the largest potato state. Frost is causing crops to slow down in eastern Idaho. Growers are concerned about problems with hollow tubers, insiders report.
Table potato area is declining, fries are growing
Things are not all smooth sailing in number 2, Washington, either. Analysts can agree with a stable area here. However, beneath the surface there is a noticeable shift from table potatoes to chip potatoes. An increase was estimated prior to the growing season. The fact that this is not visible indicates that the table potato area has decreased even further than expected. This place is filled with chips and potato chips. This would involve a growth of 1.200 hectares in these 2 segments.
Planting started a month later than usual in Washington State due to unfavorable weather. Chip manufacturers have been forced to postpone the harvest. Only this week will the first potatoes be harvested for processing. According to initial reports, yields are 20% later. A 20% smaller yield is also expected for the main harvest.
North Dakota, number 3 in America's rankings, has a similar story. Here too, planting took place considerably later due to a late spring. Fewer 'dryland' potatoes have been planted on non-irrigated land and more Russet varieties on plots with irrigation. At the beginning of July, less than 10% of the crops were in bloom. Last year that was half of all crops. The same story applies to Wisconsin, number 4 in the acreage rankings. Planting was done late and then excessive rainfall resulted in damage. However, last year the situation was even worse, growers report.
Potato harvest forecast
With the preliminary acreage figures in hand, a conservative estimate can also be made for the American potato harvest. However, the yield remains an uncertain factor, although the deviation compared to Europe is small. Analysts calculate an average hectare yield of 56,5 tons per hectare.
This brings the total for 2019 to 21,89 million tons of potatoes. This represents an increase of 1% compared to last year, good for more than 200.000 tons. French fry manufacturers have had their contracts full in Washington and Idaho. This has not happened in Wisconsin. The planned capacity expansions at processors can therefore be expected to be used in the 2019/20 growing season.