All crops took a hit after the extremely hot days at the end of July. The record high temperature also leaves its mark on the potatoes. However, clear breed and field differences are noticeable. How are the potatoes doing now?
The articles from a year ago about the growth of the potato crop are on Boerenbusiness.nl can almost be recycled. Yet there are clear differences noticeable. In many areas, growers experience the drought as just as dire or even more extreme. If you look at the weather data, such as the precipitation deficit and precipitation sum for July, this shows a different picture.
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Mindset changed
Something has also changed at the arable farmer. In the messages from 1 year ago you can still read the hesitation and reluctance. With that experience in hand, and knowing what the consequences were, people now act differently. “This year there has been a massive investment in irrigation technology,” says an insider from Drenthe. "Dealers have a waiting list until December." Irrigation is not possible or allowed everywhere. There are restrictions or a complete ban. That also makes the situation clearly different from last year. The groundwater level and the soil stock are usually considerably lower than in 2018.
Potato crops thrive best at temperatures up to 20 degrees. However, in week 30 more than double this figure was reached in the South of the Netherlands. There are field and variety differences to be discovered, but the average picture is that all crops have suffered. What this means for the final yield is like looking at coffee grounds. The market experts at DCA talk about a minus of 10% in the yield.
Northeast Netherlands
Early potatoes clearly suffered more damage from the heat, according to a round of calls among insiders. The Innovator variety is frequently mentioned and has clearly declined after the heat. The Crop Tour plots to confirm this image. The situation may be most pressing in the northeast of the Netherlands. In Overijssel, Drenthe and Groningen, but also across the border in Lower Saxony, it has hardly rained for months. This is becoming increasingly clear. The start was considerably better this spring, but heat and drought are now taking their toll. Irrigation does little to change that.
The highest temperatures were reached in the southeast. Nevertheless, the potatoes in North Limburg and East Brabant withstood the heat reasonably well. Fontane for the main harvest is still fairly green on the most irrigated plots. Where irrigation is not possible, the picture is very different. The potatoes were burned away there.
Potatoes on clay
The south of the Netherlands was treated to a lovely rain shower last weekend. However, it varies from 10 to 50 millimeters, from east to west. Potatoes have been able to recover somewhat, especially in the southwest. However, many potatoes are also on the decline in clay areas. Once again Innovator stands out. This picture is also noticeable in Flevoland, where no rain fell at the weekend. Due to the high level of irrigation, many plots will survive for a while. There is also still moisture in the soil locally after downpours in July.
The rain not only brings relief but also worries. After a heat wave, the flushing induction may have been helped. In Belgium this has now been noticed in the notoriously sensitive Bintje breed. Our southern neighbors experienced a splash of water last weekend, especially around Brussels. This was significant in Wallonia and West Flanders less. Northern France also had to make do with little water, while the temperature in this important potato area also rose very high and it is very dry.
Situation in Belgium
Insiders we spoke to from Wallonia paint a negative picture. Here too, Innovator stands out in a negative sense, although growers are also not satisfied with Fontane. Stems and leaves turn yellow after the heat and the leaves fall from the plant. The beauty is certainly gone. Growers with contracts wonder whether they can deliver their full 40 tons per hectare. The more vital plots can still make up some ground when the weather grows, but the top is gone.
Aviko Potato has its first test harvest figures for the 30 harvest year on Tuesday, July 2019 published. The samples were taken in week 30. Aviko has been anonymizing their potato data for several years. Racial and regional differences are not mentioned. The average gross yield is 33 tons per hectare, up 40 millimeters. Last year that was 30 tons. The samples are fairly coarse with more than 60% in the size 50 millimeters upwards. The underwater weight is just above 350. Much lower than last year's 400.
Situation 2016
Aviko's figures are at the same point as 2016 in terms of yield and OWG. Drought also played a role in the potato countries then. However, some nuance is in order. Three years ago, an enormous amount of rain fell in the southeast of the country in early July, causing a lot of damage. If we compare the price of the April contract on the potato futures market, we see that in 2016 the market also fell slightly in this phase to €16,90. It then rose to €22,70 towards September, before making another jump to €27,10 in mid-November.
The North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG) is also not positive about the upcoming potato harvest. An average harvest will not be achieved, the organization reported on July 30. Even though crops sometimes grow well, they lack (soil) moisture. In Belgium, trial harvests show a yield of 38 tons per hectare.
In Germany that is 42 tons with irrigation. These are early potatoes. If there is not enough rain in the next 3 weeks, the NEPG is gloomy for the main harvest, which will be around or below the average of 48 tons per hectare. The area increase of 2,2% in the EU5 is thus canceled out.