The last trading day of the month delivers a weak close, with just over 300 contracts. After opening at €16, €... was the lowest price level on Tuesday, July 30.
The difference of opinion (with regard to crop development) in the EU-4 has ensured that the futures market could rise to above €20 in the past month. However, forecasts of more changeable weather have shown that the market will just as easily fall back to €15.
Clarity about growth
There will be more clarity in the near future about the actual growth of crops in Europe. The first indication of the harvest will therefore determine the direction of the market price. Striking about the bee Boerenbusiness The known test harvesting results are that the development of the crop is currently below the multi-year average. The question is also what the effects, in addition to percolation, will be of the extreme heat of week 30. In that sense, there has been a situation that has never occurred before. In short; this has as yet unknown consequences.
The European harvest indication will be available shortly. Last season, the European harvest of potatoes for consumption was extremely low (less than 24 million tons), which resulted in market prices reaching an average of €30 per 100 kilos. However, a mega harvest was harvested in the 2017 season (30 million tons), causing market prices to drop to approximately €5 per 100 kilos.
Larger area
If we assume a larger area in the EU-2019 for 5, the very early switch to new potatoes (a 13-month season) and continuation of the current growth trend (based on known results), then the market price development in could be in line with that of the 2015 and 2016 harvest years (see also the graph below).
In any case, it is clear that there are still important months ahead with regard to the development of the crops. It must also be kept in mind that the potatoes still have to be harvested; think of the 2012 harvest in England. In short: time will tell where the potato will go (in terms of market price) in the 2018/2019 season.