Soil in potato market feels solid

Where the price of the potato futures market was still at the 2016 level last week comparedThis week, this is more likely to be the line for the 2017 harvest. It makes the potato market restless, especially because much is still unknown. The growth curve is eagerly awaited, especially now that more and more hard figures regarding the first trial harvests are known.

Various insiders are trying to estimate the growth potential of the main crop. Two main factors play a role in this: what effects has the heat had and how much precipitation is still in the barrel? It is difficult to give a clear answer to both questions, partly because the regional differences are very large. It is very important to look at the EU-2. What also plays an important role is the area figure in the EU-6. This has a dampening effect on an expected potato shortage.

The Netherlands
Recent trial harvest figures from Aviko Potato to show indicates that the yield line is increasing in 2016 and is now at 38 tons per hectare. The samples remain slightly coarser on average. The underwater weight is also increasing along with the 2016 line. The Crop tour plots are also in week 31 sampled. These 10 Innovator Crops score a noticeably lower result than 2018.

However, some nuances are in order. It does show that the potatoes are certainly not at their best in humid areas either. The irrigation reels are now starting up again, or have never been off in the east and northeast. The predicted rain is shifting and only brings relief at a local level.

Belgium
Our southern neighbors received slightly more precipitation at the end of July, although the amount fell here as well. On average, insiders talk about 10 millimeters to 15 millimeters, which, given the dry situation, offers little explanation. The heat has had a lot of impact, but the late varieties (such as Fontane) are still capable of a lot. Washing through is no problem. This makes it uncertain about the actual yield, which is not the same as 2018.

It is also very dry in Wallonia. Depending on the plot, the crops have withstood the heat reasonably well. However, the optimal growth period is decreasing and current forecasts call for little rain.

France
The situation in Northern France is comparable to Wallonia. Slightly more water fell here, between 20 millimeters and 40 millimeters at the end of July. It has rained enough, especially along the coast. This does not alter the fact that the fields here are also very dry. Further south, towards the Somme, there may be somewhat more rainfall. However, growing conditions are similar to the north.

Germany
Apart from Bavaria, all German potato growing areas are experiencing drought. Thanks to high demand from all potato processors, the early potatoes are harvested quickly. Since the mid-early varieties die off quickly, you can quickly switch to the later varieties. In addition, potatoes are sometimes transported over long distances to keep factories in Europe running. The industry has its logistics apparatus in excellent order.

At the end of July, 5 millimeters to 15 millimeters of precipitation fell in the border region, which does little to alleviate the extreme drought. After 2018, the groundwater level will remain at a very low level. However, here too people are cautious about making statements for the main harvest.

United Kingdom
The United Kingdom is the odd one out. Due to the maritime climate, temperatures on the island are lower and there are regular showers here. This is particularly unfavorable for arable farmers who are busy with the grain harvest. There are even heavy floods locally, but this is not in the arable areas.

The potato growers hope to benefit from the high demand on the continent and are therefore currently making offers. However, the deadline is October 31, 2019. When Brexit comes into effect, it will in principle no longer be possible to export potatoes.

Poland
The situation in Poland is equally interesting. As before messageIt is also very dry here. Perhaps the most critical of the EU-6. This too concerns an accumulation of facts that started in the spring of 2018. This is a problem in all potato areas, although the southwest stands out in a negative way. This is how insiders assess the situation. The direct result of this is that the Polish potato market feels fixed and questionable.

Potatoes are imported from Western Europe to, among other things, keep potato factories running. The situation in Germany and Poland in particular can provide a solid foundation for the potato market during the 2019/2020 season.

According to the Agricultural Research Institute IUNG, 64% of all Polish municipalities where potatoes are grown suffer from drought. This concerns 33,5% of the total potato area in Poland.