Trust comes on foot and goes on horseback

The most important elements are: the weather, yield, growth and price formation on the physical market. If we look at the weather, the dry areas remain somewhat lacking in water. Several other areas have had relief and crops appear to be recovering from the heat wave. Recent trial grubbing shows that the plots have generally performed reasonably well.

Yields are 10% to 15% higher than last year at this time of year. However, that is also logical, given the situation last year (the drought and heat in almost all of Europe). The various test harvesting data (including the weather forecast for the next 10 days) show that an average harvest is achievable in most potato growing areas.

There are certainly exceptions. The Achterhoek and the province of Drenthe are the driest areas in the Netherlands. The north of Germany, Poland and West Flanders appear to be below the 5-year average. However, in the south-west of the Netherlands, for example (where it was a disaster last year), much more water has now fallen and yields appear to be average to good. In the coming weeks it will become clear what growth can still be achieved and/or whether the crop still has the potential for reasonable to good regrowth.

Physical Market
Another important factor is the development of the physical market. The market was initially positive due to drought and heat. The factories had difficulty obtaining sufficient raw materials, the plots were (and are) difficult to harvest due to dry and hard soil and the yields are disappointing, meaning that many hectares have to be cleared to fill the trucks.

It was these circumstances that made the factories pay up to €3 per 25 kilos for early potatoes 100 weeks ago. In addition, mainly Belgian factories were and are the main drivers behind the market. It is striking that Dutch factories hardly come to the market to buy potatoes. The contract volumes are so large that they can get by and therefore do not need to be in the market. An observation in a market that can actually be supplied with raw materials due to low yields.

Dutch processors in particular have such coverage that they are only active on the open market to a limited extent. If the harvest is delayed or the old harvest continues for longer, this will quickly ensure that the coverage is more than sufficient, meaning that little or nothing needs to be purchased in the day market. That gives the market an 'uncanny feeling' and thus undermines confidence in a good market.

Create market
The market must now be created from trade, export or other surrounding foreign processors who are short on coverage or are missing contract potatoes due to a crop failure. For now, that demand will have to come from neighboring countries (with regard to potato processors). 

Poland is reporting, because there is a partial crop failure. Germany appears to have good yields in a number of areas (Rhineland and Bavaria), which means that potatoes can be moved nationally. Belgian processors are still in control, but this does not lead to an increase in prices. Belgapom quoted €9 for early potatoes on Friday, August 12,50, with a calm mood. That is a reduction of €2,50.