The European potato price will be average this season. This is because the expected potato harvest is just sufficient for the demand. This said Ferdi Buffen, director of potato trading house Weuthen, on Thursday 29 August at the company's Kartoffeltag.
“Despite the temperature records in 2019, the growing season is clearly different from 2018. This is evident from the rain in August alone, which results in more regrowth. The fact that investments have been made in irrigation and the area is expanding by 4 to 6% also results in a more relaxed market this year," says Buffen.
No top harvest
Buffen does expect that the main harvest will ripen early due to the heat of the last few weeks. As a result, he does not expect a top harvest. “However, for the main crop varieties Challenger, Agria, Arsenal, Innovator and Fontane, the limit of 50 tonnes per hectare can still be exceeded on non-irrigated plots.”
In the HAFPAL area, a 10 to 15% larger harvest is expected than in 2018. This is the area between Hannover, Frankfurt, Paris and Le Havre and the sea on the west and north side. This area contains 90% of the chip potato area in Northwest Europe. In parts of Eastern Germany, Lower Saxony, Poland and other regions of Southern and Eastern Europe, a small harvest is expected.
Average price
“We expect the 2019 harvest to be barely sufficient to meet demand. We estimate the yield in the EU-5 at approximately 27 to 28,5 million tons. The yield in Germany is approximately 10 to 10,5 million tons. All in all, we expect an average price level for the 2019 harvest,” Buffen concludes.
The CEO does not expect much pressure on the market in the coming weeks. “The market supply is in balance. Further price reductions are therefore not justified. We are now at the bottom of the market. We expect the price to remain at its current level until at least mid-October. If prices do fall, this will activate the starch industry and bring about stabilization. For storage potatoes, Buffen expects a price level of €13 to €17 in the period November to June.
Good seed potato harvest
In seed potato harvest good returns are expected. “The size of the seed potatoes is good because the quantity is high. Growers are struggling with high aphid pressure in the crop. We expect a shift in varieties in the early areas, from dual-purpose varieties to better processing varieties.”
The cards are different in the table potatoes. Prices in this segment in Germany are historically high. During the main harvest, prices between €16 and €19 per 100 kilos are expected for table potatoes.
Long term
“In the longer term, potato cultivation is growing. Especially due to, for example, the problems in the sugar market. This growth is supported by the industry, also because the global market for frozen potato products continues to expand. Weuthen continues to stand for contract cultivation, but also for healthy, free market forces in the potato market,” Buffen concludes.