Regrowth potatoes will not come

In many harvest years, September has been an important growing month, which means that the harvest is often larger than previously thought. Even today, the re-growth in the potato plots is looked at with suspicion. The precipitation this week and next week in the dry areas (such as the north of France, in Wallonia, but also regionally in the Netherlands and northern Germany) will be crucial.

Re-growth is an important factor in the Fontane variety, which dominates as a French fries variety in Europe. The rain that was expected has not fallen this week in the main growing areas of northern France and Belgium. It also does not appear to be any significant rain in the coming week. The regrowth which would occur with sufficient precipitation, is reportedly going to be disappointing. This will also have an impact on the market in the coming months. In Belgium and France, the multi-year average potato harvest will not be achieved and a poor harvest is therefore in the pipeline.

Movement of the futures market
The situation as it develops (with regard to regrowth and drought) is clearly reflected in the movement of the futures market. With enough rain in the pipeline, the April 2020 quote dropped to €13,50 early this week. That turned out to be a bottom. However, due to the lack of precipitation and the facts about the state of the crops in the region where Potato Europe was organised, the futures market rose again to the level of the previous week (€14,80). 

In the physical market, buyers are reluctant to pay more than €10 to €11 for direct delivery. It is also remarkable that the mood for all breeds at Belgapom is 'fixed'. This implies a clear bottom. Buyers of potatoes are somewhat in a dilemma. This is because giving demand will make the market price rise, but not create more supply. However, the growers who want/have to continue harvesting and deliver from land have no alternative in terms of sales and often do business against their will at €10 per 100 kilos.

The harvest
The second issue mentioned is the harvest. Harvesting is already becoming problematic in a number of areas. The soil is too hard, which will damage the potatoes. With little rainfall in the offing, harvestability will not improve. That is something that concerns growers in areas affected by this.