Week 37 is characterized by calm in the futures market. Sales were relatively low and the somewhat firmer mood in the physical market determined sentiment this week.
At the beginning of the week, the quotation for April 2020 was approximately €14,50. As described above, it was remarkably quiet (in terms of turnover). Stakeholders in the potato sector were awaiting the first listing of PotatoNL, which is often indicative of the setting of the physical market for the coming period.
No steps
Although the physical daily market feels price-containing. no steps have yet been taken from a price-technical perspective. The processors can make do with contract potatoes, so that the potatoes (the supply) roll in 'automatically'. At the beginning of this week, cases of 35 millimeters upwards and Fontane were even reported for just under €10. This offer was reportedly from a livestock farmer whose land was left before the closure of the spreading season (September 15) had to be empty.
Moreover, in some cultivation areas, where the harvest (based on hectare yields) is reasonable, growers can manage well with the current price level. The 'sitting duck strategy' seems to have been adopted early on by potato processors. However, there is an increasing demand for potatoes for delivery from storage. This week there was careful information left and right about Innovator out of the shed for the period February-March-April.
What is striking is the limited supply that can be put forward in the potato market. The growers and trading companies have already promised many potatoes and therefore have to wait and see what is actually harvested.
Doubt in the market
Doubts in the market about potato yields are increasing somewhat due to the persistent late summer weather, which is starting to cause problems, especially in the already dry growing areas of northern France, Belgium and southeastern Netherlands. The crops die more quickly, so they no longer produce more kilos. In short: the growth which can sometimes be exponential in varieties such as Fontane and Markies, is largely absent in the growing areas mentioned.
At the end of the week, potatoes suitable for fries (dry from the shed, delivery in April) were even traded at a price above the closing price of the futures market (€15,20).