Heavy rainfall and extreme conditions, sometimes with frost and snow, are pushing yield expectations for the US potato crop lower. Due to unfavorable weather, there has also been less regrowth.
Insiders estimate that the American potato harvest will amount to just under 21 million tons of potatoes. This is a decrease of more than 4% (955.000 tons) compared to the 2018 harvest. The reason for this is the persistent rainfall in various states and disappointing subsequent growth during the month of September.
Hectare yield drops
In line with the above, there is a lower hectare yield. That is not surprising, because in 2018 it reached a record of 57 tons per hectare. This year it is estimated at just under 55 tons per hectare. That level is 3,5% below the 20-year average. If it remains wet, the yield may be further disappointing.
Due to the rainfall in recent weeks, not all potatoes can be harvested or some lots are no longer worth harvesting. This is the case in the states of Michigan, North Dakota and Wisconsin, among others. Depending on the area, up to twice as much rain has fallen than usual. For example, as much as 2 millimeters fell in various places in Michigan during September.
Less production in Idaho
The two largest potato states: Idaho and Washington, are showing a small reduction in production. It is estimated that in Idaho it is 2%. This is the result of a lack of regrowth. Then it was too wet and very cold. This does not cause frost damage, but does prevent harvesting. By the end of September, more than 10% had been cleared, compared to half. A potato harvest that lasts until the end of October is dangerous, because the risk of frost increases.
Idaho's role is significant in the market. With a production of 6,5 million tons, the potato state contains by far the largest share of all consumption potatoes in the United States. Last year, potatoes from this state were used to keep the chip factories supplied. With almost 10% less harvest, this will happen much less in the 2019/2020 season. Processing capacity has also grown, which means there is a greater need for potatoes. Thanks to a large harvest in 2018, the season is slightly shorter than usual.
Snow in Canada
Canadian potato growers are also struggling with extreme weather. Up to 1 centimeters of snow fell in the south of the province of Alberta on Tuesday, October 60. It didn't get that cold in Manitoba, but a lot of rain fell in a short time. A new cold front is now approaching. The snow actually helps to insulate the potatoes against the cold. Another 10% of Alberta's chip potatoes still need to be harvested.