The potato harvest in clay areas has come to a standstill for the third week. Now that the end of October is approaching, it seems that the harvest will continue well into November. With this, the 2019 harvest will go down in the books as very difficult.
Approximately 50% still needs to be harvested in the EU-5. For example, in the cultivation areas on clay soils in the south-west of the Netherlands, Flevoland and the north of the Netherlands, 75% of the potatoes still need to be harvested. The capacity (in terms of harvest) has been significantly reduced in recent years. At least, when considering the number of harvesting machines. Those machines may be larger, but the number of machines has decreased. The time when almost every potato grower had a potato harvester in the shed is over.
Frost
As the harvesting period moves towards November, concerns increase when it comes to frost. Due to the lower average harvest of the EU-5, the market is balancing on a thin thread. If not all potatoes can be harvested, this will immediately cause shortages in the market. This then leads to an increase in the market price. The demanding market is also a supporting factor when it comes to direct delivery. Exports are going well and the export opportunities to Eastern Europe are great. The unavailability of mainly 'dry potatoes' does the rest.
Proceeds in Belgium
The other driver on the futures market is the final harvest figures from PCA and Fiwap. They write that the average hectare yield in Wallonia for the Innovator variety is 37 tons, which is 14 tons lower than the multi-year average of 37 tons (-27%). The Fontane variety gives a less negative picture in Wallonia and Flanders, but is also 13% below the multi-year average. The multi-year average is 52 tons, while this harvest year records an average of 45 tons. Due to a lack of moisture during the growing season, the underwater weight is almost 430 grams per 5 kilos.