News Potatoes
NEPG: Potato harvest drops below 27 million tons
The North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG) has tightened its yield forecast for ware potatoes in the EU-5 based on harvest progress. It assumes 26,9 million tons of potatoes in Northwestern Europe. Previously, that estimate was still above 27 million tons.
The NEPG mentions in their press release that this forecast assumes a full harvest, with no potatoes left behind. This could become exciting, especially for Great Britain, given the extreme amount of precipitation there. No yield figures are available for this country, so the 5-year average is used.
Belgium signs a big minus
In the 5 large potato countries of Northwestern Europe, the total yield increases in 5 out of 4 cases, compared to the 5-year average. Only Belgium records 6% less potatoes because the regrowth was very disappointing. In Germany (+0,6%) and the Netherlands (0,2%) growth in volume is minimal. For France with 10,6% more potatoes and in Great Britain with 1,2%.
These pluses and minuses result in an estimated total volume of 26,96 million tons. This is 17,5% more than last year (24,46 million tons) and 18% more than the 5-year average (26,5 million tons). An expansion of the acreage (2,6% on last year) is the main cause of more potatoes. NEPG puts the plus in Germany at 4,2%. Belgium is at 3,1% and France is at 2,1%. In total, this concerns 15.390 hectares more potatoes in the EU-5.
Hectare yield below average
In the previous NEPG harvest estimate, at the beginning of September, the yield was estimated at 27 to 27,3 million tons. The average hectare yield now amounts to 43,9 tons. This is 6,8% below the 5-year average, but still 3 tons above the disaster year 2018.
NEPG board member Bert Timmermans cites the disappointing regrowth as the main reason for this downward adjustment: "Until the end, this did not materialize. Especially in Germany and Belgium, the kilos are disappointing now that the harvest is taking place. The wet harvesting conditions also play a part. You notice that they are looking less closely now that time is pressing. This does not increase yield. Don't forget that at the start of the harvesting season, harvesting was also too dry. This caused quality problems."
Uncertainty in harvesting conditions
There is also uncertainty for Belgium and the Netherlands, where almost 60% had to be harvested last weekend, the report reports. This also applies to Northern France. Improved weather conditions mean that harvesters are now working overtime. However, the harvest is later than usual. The quality is fine, but extra attention is required because many batches arrive wet. Bacteria and fungus are reported.
The NEPG endorses stable demand from Poland and South/Southeastern Europe. Processors give demand for potatoes early in the season. Due to these factors, the price has started an upward trend. Depending on the final harvest and quality in storage, the price can take a new turn.
Rising cultivation costs for 2020
What plays a role in the EU-5 are the increased production costs as a result of intensive irrigation. These are also expected to increase in the coming years. In addition, higher harvesting costs, due to wet conditions, and higher storage costs. This is because CIPC can no longer be applied after next year. Storage sheds must be cleaned. The organization calls on potato growers to take this into account when contracting.
NEPG secretary Victor Phaff calls for no further expansion of the acreage before 2020. "If we have a normal harvest, at the current acreage, the market is no longer in balance." Before planning is made for the 2020 harvest, growers have to complete the 2019 harvest first. "It is wet in all coastal areas from Brittany to Schleswig-Holstein," says Timmermans. "Showers from the sea have caused delays in the digging work here. The same is visible in the UK."
In Boerenbusiness Potato Analysis 2019, DCA's market experts set their yield forecast for the EU-5 at 27,8 million tonnes, based on currently available data. "The rain may have slowed down the harvest, but not caused any loss of yield," they think. The frost has not yet had any effect.
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Niels van der Boom
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