With 19.000 hectares of potatoes still in the ground, and temperatures as low as -10 degrees, great concerns arose about the American potato harvest. Those concerns are well founded, because some of them have been lost due to frost. How many potatoes remain in the ground?
The answer to that question is: quite little. Even the frozen potatoes are harvested because the processing industry has a strong need for raw materials. Mainly table potatoes were left in the ground due to the early frost. It is precisely in this free segment that French fries producers are trying to obtain additional raw materials. This results in a play of forces, with prices rising rapidly.
Substantial frost damage
Insiders expect that the US will export fewer potatoes due to the weather-related problems. The United States Department of Agriculture USDA published at the end of October that 15% of the potato area in Idaho still had to be harvested. Good for 19.000 hectares, because the state is the largest potato producer in the country. A complete picture has not yet been formed, but it is expected that at least 10% will ultimately be affected by frost. Good for 12.550 hectares.
The problem has two sides. In addition to frost damage, the 'potato state' experienced little regrowth this summer. Processors had hoped for this to make up for a late start. Acre yields are so disappointing and are 2 tons per hectare below last year in Idaho. That may not seem shocking, but in total it means 3,75 fewer table potatoes to be exported. This concerns only 200.000 state.
The further north the worse
In northern states, such as North Dakota, the problems are even greater. Potato cultivation is smaller, but in percentage terms more remained in the ground. Up to 50% insiders estimate. Especially in the Red River Valley region, which is divided between North Dakota and Minnesota, many table potatoes have been lost due to frost. A new cold wave has wiped out all hopes of growers to continue harvesting here.
Plots that have suffered frost damage are also cleared, if conditions permit. Major losses must be taken into account. However, the demand is so substantial that it is worthwhile to dig them up. According to reports, 2.000 hectares of potato chips are still in the ground in Michigan.
Situation in Canada
The situation further north, in neighboring Canada, is even more pressing. Major losses are recorded in Alberta and Manitoba potato growers. This mainly concerns fries potatoes. On both sides of the border, processors, mainly the chip industry, are looking for sufficient raw materials.
Relatively many table potatoes that remain in the ground, lower yields and reduced quality ensure that the table segment is taking a major blow. The chip industry buys up any excess kilos. Insiders therefore calculate that the export of table potatoes from the US will be more than 550.000 tons lower for the 2019 harvest. This brings the total export to 4 million tons, compared to 4,66 million tons last year.
Many states are experiencing reduced potato production, but it is certain that the problems in Idaho are the most substantial. Simply because this state has the most potatoes. In the state, it is estimated that between 500.000 and 750.000 tons of potatoes have frost damage. The share of potato tare is estimated at 20% to 25% in these lots. This indication is adjusted upwards rather than downwards.
Worldwide French fries production
Insiders estimate that a tight American and Canadian harvest, coupled with a European potato harvest 'with a story', will create a tight global chip market. Processors in Canada and the northern part of the Midwest are experiencing shortages, which are being partially offset by minimizing losses and purchasing as many free table potatoes as possible. Heavy investments have been made in production capacity in Europe and North America, making it a challenge to keep all lines filled.