The potato market is currently looking closely at the situation in the United Kingdom. The extreme precipitation not only causes flooding, but also hinders the harvest. In the meantime, it is no longer a question of how many hectares have been cleared, but how much remains.
More precipitation than usual has fallen everywhere in the country; approximately 125%, but locally up to 175%, of the average. That rain mainly fell in the midwest and north of the country. Here the rain gauge sometimes registers up to 300 millimeters, causing the rivers to overflow their banks and causing a lot of suffering for farmers and citizens alike.
Outdated figures
Only on high-lying plots, which allow water to drain very well, can careful clearing be carried out. AHDB Potato recently published new figures on harvest progress. However, these are current up to and including November 12, which means that they were immediately outdated upon release. This government service calculated that 89% of the area had been cleared. A lot more than many people thought. This would mean that about 13.000 hectares would still be in the ground. In the wettest areas this percentage is considerably higher.
AHDB calculates with the entire area of consumption potatoes, without seed potatoes. This means that all new potatoes, early varieties, salad potatoes and other varieties are also included. What is still in the ground are potatoes for long-term storage. Mostly varieties for the French fries industry, chips industry or processing into fresh fries (so-called chipping). If you only take this segment, insiders estimate that approximately 35% to 25% of this area still needs to be harvested. How exactly that is remains a guesswork.
How much remains in the ground?
AHDB has also estimated the average yield of the country. This amounts to 47 tons to 49 tons per hectare. This means that 630.000 tons of potatoes have not yet been harvested. Of the area, 2% to 3% (2.380 to 3.570 hectares) would no longer even be worth grubbing up. Those plots have been completely depreciated by rot. Some will still be grubbed up next spring, provided frost does not become a spoilsport.
Anyone who keeps their potatoes in the shed is not without problems. Since harvesting took place under difficult conditions and with a lot of wet soil, many storage problems occur. Those batches still rot in storage. Lower temperatures cause more blue and firing color problems on a limited scale. There are also plots that have many green tubers after precipitation has washed the ridges bare.
Parallel with 2012
The sector is now drawing parallels with the 2012 harvest year, when the country supplied 1 million tons fewer potatoes, due to a dry season, difficult harvest conditions and storage losses. The area was slightly larger at 121.823 hectares. Ultimately, 5% (approximately 6.000 hectares) remained in the ground. Only 4,4 million tonnes of potatoes were harvested in the UK. 1 year later that was 5,5 million tons.
Since the potato harvest in the EU-5 was disappointing everywhere, with a 16,5% lower yield, the price was at a higher level. On November 19, 2012, the price of the April contract on the potato futures market touched the level of €30 per 100 kilos, before dropping back to the level of €20 in the new year.