Damage from potato harvest greater than expected

The wet autumn has put a lot of energy into the harvest; after all, the potatoes did not come out of the ground easily. The growers have incurred a lot of costs for this and this has partly been at the expense of quality. Now that the smoke has cleared, we can conclude that Belgium, Germany and France emerged most unscathed from that battle. Almost 100% of the harvest has been harvested there.

This has not been successful in the Netherlands and it is mainly the coastal provinces and northern clay areas where a small part has not yet been harvested. The estimate made by DCA is that this amounts to approximately 1% to 2% of the total total harvest. That amounts to approximately 100.000 tons.

Greatest damage in England
England suffered the greatest damage. There, a large part has not (yet) been cleared, especially in the chip potato and chip potato growing areas. DCA estimates that this amounts to about 15% of the total area in the areas mentioned. This amounts to approximately 600.000 tons of potatoes.

In total, between 500.000 tons and 1 million tons of potatoes will be written off in the EU-5. This will reportedly also have an impact on pricing. In recent weeks, the futures market has already risen to its old 'high' level of €18. If the harvest in the EU-5 is recalculated, it will therefore be less than 27 million tons, something that creates a strong base in the market.

Early start
Another factor is that due to the early start of the new season, a lot of potatoes have already been used up. However, a scenario like 2012, in which England blew up the market on the European continent, has not yet occurred. The market reacts very sensitively to additional demand, due to the large volume of contracted potatoes.

The additional demand from, for example, the crisp industry in England can have a major impact, partly due to the low availability of free potatoes. This may allow the price range from €13 to €17 to be adjusted to €16 to €22 in the winter season.