The disappointing growing season, the difficult harvest and an early frost period mean that the potato stock in the United States is approximately 440.000 tons smaller than 1 year ago.
It is known that the 2019 growing season in the United States was also far from smooth. Spring started late in many places and the harvest was made more difficult by precipitation. Winter then arrived early, leaving relatively many hectares in the important growing areas verloren used to go. Growers in Canada also had a hard time. The harvest ultimately turned out to be 2,5% smaller than 1 year earlier.
440.000 tons less
The above results in a smaller potato stock on reference date December 1, according to the insiders. It is estimated that the stock then amounted to 11,97 million tonnes (264 million cwt), a decrease of 3,5% from the same date last year. That minus amounts to approximately 440.000 tons fewer potatoes in stock.
It is mainly the stock of table potatoes and potato chips that have been delivered. The table potato stock is almost 10% lower than a year earlier. The lowest in 4 years. Potato processors are working hard on table potatoes to keep their factories supplied and to compensate for a shortage of chip potatoes. The stock itself is virtually the same as 1 year earlier. However, processing capacity has increased significantly due to the construction of new lines in the United States and Canada.
Arguing about numbers
In mid-December, the American Department of Agriculture (USDA) will come up with its own inventory measurement. However, insiders expect that this will give a distorted picture and show a larger percentage deviation than the stated 3,5%. Partly because the data from some cultivation areas is no longer included and because it calculates with different production figures for a number of states. The USDA usually does not correct production, inventory and processing figures until a very long time after publication. There's just a year in between.
The ministry currently estimates a main harvest of 18,5 million tonnes (408,2 million cwt) for the 11 largest states. This is 480.000 tons less than in 2018 (-2,5%). The lowest potato production since 2015. These figures are not expected to be revised until January.
To stock up on supplies
In October, the French fries stock at producers increased by 426.000 tons. The months of September and October are used to replenish product stocks. Potatoes are the cheapest in those months and factories cover themselves to have sufficient product in December. Demand is considerably higher during Thanksgiving and Christmas. The stock has been replenished less than usual, due to the exceptionally high demand during that period.
Meanwhile, the American media has widely noted the disappointing potato harvest in the country. Headlines suggest a possible chip shortage. However, insiders think this is a major exaggeration. Processors are doing everything they can to ensure that their (new) lines do not come to a standstill.
Custom requirements
Significantly more potatoes are being purchased on the open market. This mainly concerns table potatoes, which are also suitable for processing. Free stocks of potato chips are also being purchased. Losses are kept to a minimum and customers are asked to be tolerant with their quality requirements. This makes it easier to deal with frying color and chip length.
A logistical masterpiece is required to keep all factories running. In the early growing area of Washington State (Columbia Basin), efforts are being made to grow more early chip potatoes, which can be harvested from early July. This will keep chip factories in the northern part of the Midwest, Idaho and even Canada running until local harvest is available. This means that potatoes have to travel 600 to 700 kilometers. Comparable to the move of Dutch and Belgian processors, who get their earliest potatoes from Bordeaux (1.000 kilometers).