A major shortage of potatoes, after a catastrophic dry growing season, ensures that the potato market in Poland is showing strong. Prices have been at a high level throughout the season. Increases are expected in the coming weeks.
The Polish agricultural economic institute IERiGÅ»-PIB describes the situation on the Polish potato market in their December report. Even though the area increased by 2019% to 2 hectares in 304.000, the harvest was still 640.000 tons lower than in poor 2018. A total potato volume of 6,84 million tons is the smallest ever in the country.
The multi-year average hectare yield in Poland is 23,4 tons per hectare, compared to 22,5 tons last season. Compared to the multi-year average, even 1,1 million tons less was harvested. Due to the shortage, prices are at a record high. The starch industry has been hit hardest by the drought. Processors also have to deal with almost 10% less potato volume. Processors are trying to fill this gap by importing potatoes from Germany and the Netherlands, among others.
Rising prices
At the beginning of December, the grower price averaged €23 per 100 kilos, reports IERiGÅ»-PIB. Prices on the wholesale market (sorted and packaged) vary from €23 to €47 per 100 kilos. The institute expects that prices will rise further during the winter as supplies decrease. Small Polish potato growers in particular have little or no storage capacity.
The imported volume and the weather also influence the potato market and the price. In the supermarket, potato prices are now 55% higher than a year ago, with rising prices in recent months. Consumption per person therefore decreases by 5%.
Significantly more exports
Meanwhile, Dutch export figures show a significant increase for the destination Poland. Last autumn that figure was almost 0. This season the Dutch sector has more potatoes and that is noticeable. In September, 742 tons of potatoes were exported. A month later that was already almost 3.500 tons.
Polish imports of French fries potatoes increased sharply between July and September, government figures show. The volume was above 10.000 tonnes three times and in September even above 11.000 tonnes. A year earlier, volumes of up to 8.000 tons were recorded. In 2018, it imported 105.000 tons of French fries potatoes, compared to 91.000 tons in 2017.
Harvest 2020
After 2 special and extreme seasons, the question is what the 2020-2021 season will bring for Polish potato growers. The first thought is that a strong price level encourages expansion of the acreage. This need also exists among processors, in order to provide themselves with sufficient raw materials. With an 'average' harvest, more than 7 million tons of potatoes are harvested.
However, there is no such thing as an average harvest. In a good growing season (such as 2017), more than 9 million tons can be harvested (with an area of 320.000 hectares). That is the bandwidth within which the Polish potato sector moves.