It is clear that the current potato season has been irreparably affected by the corona crisis. What can we expect from the 2020-2021 sales season, when the catering industry can open again and events are organized again? Does China have predictive value?
China serves as a guide country for the rest of the world regarding the corona crisis. The country was the first to deal with the virus and is also the first to recover, although this is only slowly. This also applies to the (out of home) consumption of, for example, fries. With new export figures in hand, we can see whether recovery is possible.
Turkey big winner
China imported almost 12.000 tons of frozen French fries and other potato products during the month of March - the most current figures in the world trade database. This volume is 15% lower than a year earlier, but half higher than in February. The Netherlands saw a significant increase in the exported volume. The big winner, however, is Turkey.
Turkey is able to export products to China overland via the new 'Silk Road' between Europe and China. This is an advantage at a time when refrigerated containers (reefers) are experiencing significant price increases and reduced availability. It has been clear for some time that Turkey is becoming an increasingly bigger player in the French fries market. In March, exports to China increased by three quarters compared to a year earlier. Dutch exports rose 60%. Belgium's remained virtually the same, but is considerably larger than that of our country. 2.500 to 500 tons of finished product.
Fewer exports from the US
The largest supplier of French fries to the Chinese is the United States, with 3.300 tons of exported product. That is a significant reduction compared to the same month in 2019, when more than 9.000 tons were exported. Over a 12-month period, the US maintains its lead, but exports are a fifth lower. The export of the Netherlands is almost three-quarters lower and that of Belgium is more than half. Turkey is also the big winner here, with 65% more exports. Germany also did good business.
A notable destination on the list is New Zealand, which exported a small volume of chips to China at the lowest cost per tonne. The Netherlands and Belgium are also competitively priced, although the price difference with the Belgians is large. The US and Canada record the highest price per tonne. Although the average price per tonne of fries fell slightly in March, that of the Netherlands increased compared to a year earlier. 2019 in particular was a very expensive potato year.
Situation not normal
We now have to look at the figures for April to see whether the recovery is structural or a temporary phenomenon. Even though restaurants in China are opening again, the situation is anything but normal. Citizens are strictly monitored and their temperatures are taken before entering. The planting season has also started in the north of the country. This may also be affected by the corona crisis because measures make it difficult to get labor, seed potatoes and fertilizer to the right place.
Consumption in Europe
Can we expect the same picture from the 'one and a half meter society' in the Netherlands and elsewhere in Europe? The first steps are now being taken carefully, although in many cases catering doors remain firmly closed. Since around 70% of the fries produced go to other European countries - and most of them are consumed outside the home - it is important for potato processors in Western Europe that the catering industry starts running again, but the processors of company canteens and events are also important. dependent.
Belgium has a very strict corona policy and will continue to apply it for the time being. As in the Netherlands, large gatherings are prohibited until September. This is also the case in Germany. Small shops are allowed to open again there and from May 4, also larger businesses. France will relax the measures on May 11, but here too there is little relief for the tourism, culture and catering sectors. The hard-hit countries Italy and Spain continue to implement strict policies, while other Northern and Central European countries are all phasing out their measures.
Festivals fear for 2021
Catering operators are gloomy and fear for their future. Many businesses have no buffer to get through a months-long crisis, despite the financial support offered by the government. For festivals, even 2021 is already being buried. Insurers no longer allow festival organizers to take out insurance against a pandemic and have removed this cover from the package. Organizers are therefore asking the government to set up a guarantee fund, because otherwise the risk is too great.