In the 2019/2020 export season, more seed potatoes crossed national borders than the year before. The export of the 2019 harvest was 6,4% higher than that of 2018. Compared to the years before, the export is disappointing.
If we look at the 5-year average of 785.879 tons, the exported volume for the 2019/2020 season is about 760.321% lower at 3 tons. In 2015, 2016 and 2017, exports worldwide experienced peak years with volumes above 800.000 tons. Only in 1991 did that happen before. The volume fell sharply in 2018 due to the lower harvest due to the drought, but recovered somewhat last season.
Surface no obstacle
Statistics Netherlands calculates the final gross yield at 35,8 tons per hectare, compared to 2018 tons in 31. The 5-year average is 35,4 tons. It is not due to the area of seed potatoes. This has only increased over the past 5 years and reached a record area of 2019 hectares in 43.690. This year the bar will be raised again with 44.200 hectares. Quality has been an obstacle to seed potato exports. Many parties were faced with a class downgrade or even rejection.
The other reason why exports are lower is the consequences of the corona crisis. Potato processors discouraged growers from growing fewer potatoes for consumption. Only limited response has been given to this, as we now know from the first European acreage figures. It is difficult to find out what happened to this seed potato. It is inevitable that part of it was ultimately purchased by arable farmers and planted at their own expense, given the acreage.
Less seed potatoes, more acreage
European exports are the only destination to record a minus in tonnages compared to 2018. All other continents did better or even significantly better, for example Asia. If we look at the list of EU countries, Belgium immediately stands out. This country purchased 17,5% less seed potatoes, which is undoubtedly partly due to the plans of Belgian processors. The volume towards France also fell by 10%. Germany, now the largest export destination, purchased significantly more starting material. Exports rose 4,6%.
For Germany, exports match the movement of the area, which is indeed the case this year increases. This cannot be explained for Belgium. The consumption potato cultivation in Flanders is not decreasing and in Wallonia it is increasing slightly. That does not fit with 17,5% less seed potatoes. The United Kingdom also purchased less seed potatoes and Poland a quarter more. Of the non-EU destinations, Turkey bought the most pots. Not surprising. This country in particular has made gains on the chip export market where, in destinations such as Brazil, the regular players are disadvantaged by anti-dumping duties.
More to Asia and Africa
Exports to Asia are notable because the exported volume is almost a quarter above the 2018 harvest year. A significant increase, but less than was achieved after the 2017 harvest. Iraq and Syria purchased noticeably more seed potatoes from Dutch trading companies. African countries such as Egypt and Morocco also traded more, resulting in African trade being 7,5% higher. The American continent has gone even further with a 40% increase. Although this is a much smaller volume (23.000 tons) compared to the 157.000 tons to Africa or 111.550 tons to Asia.
The 2020/2021 export season brings with it the necessary uncertainties. This is not due to the availability of the product. The area has grown slightly and after the rainfall in June the crops have also increased. However, there are concerns regarding quality. The lice pressure was extremely high from the start and there is also the bottleneck of the follow-up check. With a consumer potato price that is under strong pressure and there are no signals of a demanding market, seed potato growers are probably doing everything they can to grow little or no excess. This means that trading houses have more salable sizes.
Creditworthiness
Export companies are particularly concerned about the creditworthiness of certain destinations, which have sometimes been hit hard by the coronavirus. A country like Cuba (good for 14.000 tons of seed potatoes) relies mainly on tourism. This also applies to Egypt (31.250 tons of seed potatoes). If the economy is bad, there is less money available to purchase seed potatoes.
Countries that rely heavily on oil revenues are also hurt by low fuel prices. Extensive support packages worth millions or billions are not on the agenda in Asia, Africa and South America. Trading houses fear that the seed potato trade will notice this, although it remains a very uncertain situation.