Physical potato price can just double

This week the futures market was dominated by the test harvests from the various countries. It is becoming increasingly clear that this year will not be a great year in terms of yield. The trial harvests in Germany, Belgium and France clearly indicate that yields will exceed 2018, but that they will not currently reach the 5-year average. The yield seems to be heading towards 2016/2019, depending on what the subsequent growth will do.

Too much precipitation
There are now also growers who are concerned about too much precipitation. The warm sea water causes rapidly rising showers that can produce a lot of precipitation locally. Perhaps this could become the next challenge for potato growers.

Due to the moderate yields, the futures market will also have a firmer bottom this week. The futures market peaked at €8,5 in the middle of this week, but could not quite maintain this at the end of the week.

Challenges of the physical market
The biggest challenges appear to be in the physical market and its connection with the futures market. All stock exchanges were again in 'No listing' this week. Which is a shame, because growers have no idea what the market is now. Dutch processors reported that they were not buyers, but did write down 'excess kilos' for €1,5 to €2. However, with increasing demand this week from non-processors, it turned out to be difficult to buy free potatoes for €3. Even an offer for €5 could not be made by various market parties.

Lack of alternatives
Belgium is physically the weakest. This is mainly due to a lack of alternative sales. Belgium has no starch or flake industry and the forage market there has not been developed for feed potatoes. This week, trading took place there for €3 free, but there was also trading for €3 collected.