The potato harvest in the United States is even smaller than previously predicted. In August, a harvest of 18,3 million tons was still expected, but insiders now expect that that level will not be reached either. In addition, the average hectare yield is also declining further.
The new expectations project a US potato harvest of 18,1 million tons, true in August a harvest of 18,3 million tons of potatoes was still expected. Compared to last year, a contraction of 5,4% is currently expected. The average yield drops to 49,6 tons per hectare, while a hectare yield of 50,1 tons was expected in mid-August.
Changing weather conditions
The significantly lower harvest forecast is mainly due to the changing weather conditions in August. It was particularly dry in Maine, which means that the expected yield there is now 20% below the 5-year average. For that region, insiders expect a potato harvest of 594.206 tons, while in mid-August 684.924 tons were expected. The biggest adjustment, however, is due to the Idaho region. The harvest there is expected to be 131.541 tons lower at 5,9 million tons. This is 0,6% less than last year.
The above reductions were somewhat offset by higher expectations in Washington, Colorado, Oregon and North Dakota, among others. In Washington, a yield of 3,91 million tons is expected, which is about 400.000 tons more than forecast in mid-August. However, compared to last year, a decrease of 15,5% is visible. In the North Dakota region, the expected yield increases by more than 25.000 tons to 984.295 tons. A similar increase is visible in Colorado to 961.916 tons. The yield forecast in Oregon has been raised by 100.000 tons to 1,05 million tons by insiders. This is still 7,3% less than the expected harvest of 2019.
hectare yield below long-term average
The expected hectare yield of 49,6 tonnes is lower than the average of the past 20 years. That works out to 50,8 tons per hectare. For 2019, a yield of 50,1 tons is assumed. The biggest cause for the lower average yield is the decrease in harvested area in Washington (-8.498 hectares) and Oregon (-3.237 hectares). It is therefore striking that higher hectare yields are expected in these states (compared to August). In Washington, 67,6 tons per hectare is assumed, compared to 67,1 tons in August. However, a significant difference is still visible compared to last season, when the yield was 70,3 tons per hectare.
In Oregon, a record yield of just over 70 tons per hectare is expected this year. Last season, this area did not exceed 62,7 tons per hectare. The old record dates from 2018, when a yield of 67 tons per hectare was achieved. The lowest hectare yield is expected in Maine, with approximately 29 tons per hectare. Last year the hectare yield was still 35 tons. This is mainly due to the aforementioned dry and warm conditions in August, with very little precipitation. As a result, the potato harvest is probably the lowest since 1918.