Canadian potato growers have now almost completed the harvest. New figures from Statistics Canada, among others, show that clearly fewer potatoes have been harvested than in previous years. Is the small potato harvest leading to shortages in the processing industry? And, can the Netherlands possibly respond to this?
According to the National Statistics Office in Canada, the potato harvest this season is expected to be 317.514 tonnes below last year's level (-7%), around 4,4 million tonnes. Earlier on a reduction of 272.155 tons was still assumed. However, the latter reduction was revised when News Brunswick potato growers suffered one of the lowest yields ever. This is 25% to 40% lower than previous years, depending on the location.
The central part of Prince Edward Island, where at least 50% of the potato cultivation is located, was hit hardest by the drought last summer. The yield in non-irrigated plots is variable, but generally considerably lower than in previous seasons. The harvest in the rest of this province is almost average, causing total production to drop 'only' 15%. Moreover, the quality of the harvested potatoes has been described as excellent, with a very good storability.
Shortages expected?
It is expected that shortages will arise due to the smaller harvest. For example, the expectation for the province of Manitoba is that there will be approximately 15% fewer potatoes than requested from potato processing. In the province of Ontario it is also expected that potatoes will have to be sourced from other segments to meet the demand from the industry. In New Brunswick, revenues also do not cover contract volumes. In short: Canada is expected to still have to import quite a bit of product.
This is somewhat striking, because as a result of the corona crisis, catering establishments in Canada are closed. The expectation was that the refrigerators would be full, but nothing could be further from the truth. Most producers have passed on the potatoes to the animal feed industry, just like in the Netherlands. To date, a second wave of the corona crisis has not yet completely shut down the processing industry in Canada, which means that potatoes are still in demand.
Role for the Netherlands?
And then the question arises: can the Netherlands respond to that shortage? In the 2018/2019 season, Canada imported more than $450 million worth of potatoes, including $311 million in frozen and processed products. Of this, $2,52 million was imported from the Netherlands. In concrete terms, that season involved 1,66 million kilos. Although imports from the Netherlands have increased in recent years, it remains a piece of cake with the United States. Canada imported 58,3 million kilos from the neighboring country in the same season.
The Netherlands could therefore make a small contribution to filling the shortages, although the United States will always have preference. One bright spot is that the minor mood was taken into account early on the seed potato market, which has severely limited the area of chip varieties. As a result, American chip factories may only be able to produce for the local market, leaving more room for Dutch exporters.