The month of December has started and that means that Brexit is getting closer and closer. Tensions are mounting for the Irish chips industry. A possible ban on the import of potatoes from the United Kingdom could have significant consequences for the supply in the coming year. How dependent are the countries on each other?
Today there is still no agreement on the details of Brexit. This means that British table and seed potatoes will be in violation of European food safety rules from January 1, 2021. The United Kingdom then becomes a so-called 'third country'. It is a loss for the Irish chip industry, because British potatoes are popular with chip shops in Ireland. It can be compared to the Belgian preference for Bintjes when it comes to the production of fries.
According to the Irish chip industry, a Brexit without a good deal could not only cause the taste and type of fries to change soon, but it could also lead to serious shortages and the portions in Ireland having to be adjusted. The government agency 'Teagasc' is now working on an alternative variety, but it is not expected that this variety will be marketable in the short term.
Impact on growers
Not only is the chip industry suffering from a 'bad Brexit deal', the impact on potato growers is also significant. Ireland was a major exporter of seed potatoes in the distant past, but the sector has shrunk over the past 30 years. Irish farmers produce 4.000 tonnes of seed potatoes annually. In contrast, the country imports more than 6.000 tonnes of seed potatoes every year, mainly from Scotland. In short: the shortage is enormous. To prevent major problems, the Ministry of Agriculture has issued a so-called 'Trader Notification', encouraging the import of more seed and consumption potatoes from the United Kingdom before January 1 as a buffer.
If we look at the export figures of Dutch seed potatoes to Ireland, they are not very high. Last season it was only 18 tonnes and in the previous two seasons virtually nothing was exported to Ireland. On the other hand, seed potato exports to the United Kingdom are significant. Last year this involved a volume of more than 15.000 tons. The no-deal Brexit would also be a loss for Dutch growers because a large sales market would disappear. It is difficult to estimate whether that loss can be compensated by exporting more to Ireland. The Irish now import the majority from Scotland and are expected to continue to do so.
The good news is that the United Kingdom has submitted an application to the European Union for so-called 'third country equivalence' for the export of seed potatoes and consumption potatoes to Europe. The application must still go through the European legislative process and will therefore not enter into force immediately. The problem is that the European Union has indicated that this process will only start once trade negotiations with the United Kingdom have been completed.
Problems for the British too
The impact of a messy divorce between the European Union and the United Kingdom will not only be felt in Ireland. A large proportion of frozen French fries producers in Great Britain often source their potatoes from Belgium. These imports will also be banned with a no-deal Brexit. Companies in the United Kingdom will therefore have difficulty obtaining sufficient raw material for the production of frozen chips. All in all, December is an exciting month for both the British and Irish industries.