In the months of December and January, the French fries industry in the United States processed more than 162.000 tons less potatoes into chips and other products than was the case in the previous season. The difference in processing fluctuates considerably by state, which has everything to do with the availability of enough potatoes. Factories assume further recovery, but when will this become apparent?
Insiders estimate that US potato processors processed a total of 1,9 million tons of potatoes in the months of December and January. If this turns out to be the case, the level will be more than 162.000 tons below the same period in 2019-2020. That is a decrease of almost 8%. However, the sector has clearly recovered compared to the processing level in the summer months, when the corona virus had a much greater impact on sales.
Varies by state
How much processing is taken varies by state. For example, insiders think that production in Idaho, the largest potato state in the US, hardly differs from a season earlier. This is because many potatoes are processed into flakes and granules in this state. Despite the corona crisis, this segment is holding up well. The chips produced in Idaho are primarily intended for retail and local consumption. It has peaked since the corona crisis precisely because people eat more fries at home.
The situation is different in the important growing area, the Columbia Basin (located in the states of Washington and Oregon). Processors in this area are much more export-oriented and that is where the figures are lower. An estimated 10%. 73.000 hectares of potatoes are grown in this region. That is almost as much as in the Netherlands. A production decline is also expected in the state of Maine. Especially because the harvest there is considerably smaller. So is the northern part of the Midwest.
Recover this spring
The sector in the country expects to show stability in the numbers from this month, with further recovery in March. From April it is expected that green figures can be written with regard to the processing. The recovery of the US economy in particular determines whether the potato sector can fully recover in the final months of the current processing season. That will not work at all, because part of the export to the European and Canadian factories has been lost.
According to information published by the 'potato states' themselves, it appears that 21.000 tons less table potatoes were exported in December and January. A decrease of 3% compared to last year. Especially because 16.000 tons less potatoes were exported from the Columbia Basin.
Half of the harvest processed
Lower processing and export logically result in a larger potato stock. Insiders are counting on the stock to be nearly 3% higher this month than a year earlier. This represents an increase of 308.000 tons in absolute figures. It is estimated that 1 million tons of potatoes were still in stock on 11,5 February. This is less than was the case in 2019. This means that 50% of the American potato harvest has now been processed or exported.