Inside Potatoes
Do not note Belgapom provides smoke screen
The physical potato market is still in turmoil. Belgapom's failure to register is a signal of this. This can be interpreted in a number of ways.
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Choose the subscription that suits youOne scenario is that no potato trade can be established on the Belgian market due to a lack of demand. But it is also possible that there are no potatoes for sale, which means that no price (read: quotation) can be placed on the board.
Last week, transactions in the Dutch market ranged from €6 to €7 (processors) per 100 kg to even €10 (trade) for potatoes suitable for fries. In particular, foreign parties are active in purchasing French fries potatoes in the Netherlands. Up to €10 would have been paid for the Innovator variety, which is requested by German processors, among others. According to market reports, this is also the case for Fontane (€10 per 100 kg), but these go to Belgian processors. The transactions often concern delivery in mid-March, but the potatoes are often loaded earlier.
Processors are performing better than expected
What it actually comes down to is that the supply of potato-free potatoes is limited. In addition, processors in the EU-4 countries are reportedly performing above expectations. The heavy clearing in the first half of the storage season, in combination with the processors performing better than expected, may surprise the market further in the coming period. In fact, this is already the case, with a futures market quotation that at the beginning of this week (6) was still €10,50 for the April and €13,50 for the June contract. A futures market price that few have taken into account until recently.
It remains strange that the stock figures for France and Belgium (announced this week) show that there should be sufficient potatoes available. Given the current situation in the market, potatoes are not for sale on the open market. This is also evident from the Belgian stock figures. The analysis shows that there is a relatively high stock of potatoes, of which relatively few are unsold.
The current dynamics in the market are more than special. There will be more clarity in the coming weeks as to whether the price increase will continue. The futures market will wait a bit at the end of the week with closing prices for the April contract around €9,50 and €12,00 for June.