The potato area in the United Kingdom is expected to decrease this season. This decrease is mainly expected in the segment for fresh chips and table potatoes. The cultivation of industrial potatoes for chips and crisps remains stable.
Looking back at historical data, it is visible that after a year with low market prices, the potato area always decreases. The analysts from government service AHDB Potato therefore think that 2021 will see a new decline in potato cultivation. Not surprising, because the British area has been steadily decreasing for decades.
Small drop
Based on these figures (the highest and lowest area figures), the estimate fluctuates between 106.700 and 121.700 hectares. It is estimated that a decrease of 2% to 2,5% is the most realistic, although this varies per segment. For example, the area of chip potatoes decreased sharply last year.
Compared to the trend line, the areas for the fresh chip market and table market (pre-pack) are declining the most this year. That of the potatoes for processing into fries and chips is extremely stable. Last year this segment amounted to 34.800 hectares, which is estimated not to decrease. The figure is already below average compared to the average.
Two bad years
The price formation of the old season has a major influence on the area. The 2020-2021 season has a relatively low average potato price and the UK also had a relatively low price in the 2019-2020 season. When that happened last time (between 2013 and 2015), the area fell by 2015% in 7,5. Because the area has already decreased by 7% last year, AHDB does not expect such a sharp decrease in cultivation for this season.
Whether English potato growers are guided by emotion depends on their location and for which sales channel they grow, the figures show. Especially in the northeast of the country, arable farmers tend to grow significantly more or fewer potatoes. For example, a difficult harvest has a strong negative effect. The chip potatoes sold to fish & chip shops – or for this segment – have a fairly open market. Volatility is high here. Chips and potato chip cultivation is all contract work. This makes this segment stable.
Demand market
Due to the above facts, it is expected that English growers will therefore grow fewer free potatoes and stick to their contracts. It is important for the French fries sector how the factories are structured and whether they offer contracts that growers want to grow for. That is not entirely clear yet. A decline is inevitable - based on data - so a questionable potato market can be expected when growing conditions pose challenges.