The April 2022 potato futures market closed sharply higher for the Easter weekend. And that at the same time as the old crop futures market has even briefly fallen below the level of €6 per 100 kilos this week.
The April 2022 contract closed significantly higher on Thursday, April 1, with a closing level of €17,30. In that sense, the hurdle of €17 was overcome without much difficulty, while the old crop futures market briefly fell below €6 this week. The difference between old and new crop has increased to as much as €11.
Great trust
Confidence for the 2021 harvest year is apparently very high, especially after a very moderate to poor price-wise handling of the 2019 and 2020 harvest. Factors such as a relatively significant shrinkage of the acreage in the EU-4 countries - as expected - and the hoped-for end of the corona era ensure a significant expected value, before the growing season.
This explosive cocktail means that the new crop futures market is already above the €17 level. Compared to the start of the 4 previous seasons, the price development of the 2021 harvest year is also positively out of line. The market is once again sending a clear signal that a different year may be in store for price developments.
A lot can still happen
Yet a swallow does not make a summer. During the growing season in particular, the cards are often shuffled. Or rather: 'mother nature' - apart from the corona issues - determines the direction of the market. A market price approaching the level of €20 - perhaps at a somewhat later stage - is certainly a moment for the future potato owner to think about what strategy is appropriate.
The graph above shows the price development of the various harvest years from the introduction of the contract to week 17.