The physical chip potato market took another step up last week. In settlement week (17) of the April 2021 forward contract, it became clear that the physical market was making strides.
Things moved quickly in the week after the futures contract's last trading day. Demand came and comes mainly from Germany, which is pre-sorting for the slow growth of early potatoes due to the cold weather of recent weeks. Given the stage where the early potatoes are now, the market is anticipating a minimum growth delay of 3 weeks.
Germans slide
In terms of early potatoes, Germany is the main supplier of the French fries producers located in Northwest Europe. A transition from the old harvest to the new harvest is therefore always an exciting period. The switch to new potatoes is made with the Premiere variety, whose acreage has already shrunk considerably.
Germany is now responding to the current state of affairs by shifting the position, looking now at what is still for sale in potatoes for this month and moving the good potatoes in storage towards July in order to fill the gap of the delayed catch early potatoes.
Belgian mood improves
Belgium seemed to be adopting a more wait-and-see attitude, mainly due to the still large stock position. This also applies to France. Nevertheless, as witnessed by the various quotations (PCA/Fiwap and later also Belgapom), the Belgian buyers went along with the vote from Germany by paying about €18 per 10 kilos from the grower for Fontana in the course of week 100. The price increase in Belgium is mainly prompted by the reluctance of potato custodians to provide supply. The quality is still good because of the cold nights, so there is no oversupply.
Dutch factories not yet on the market
In the Netherlands, processors do not seem to be moving much for the time being. No transactions will be reported on the PAT transaction list after April 30 (last €8,00 for Victoria).
The factories are not yet on the market and appear to have sufficient coverage. However, the Dutch market is being boosted by export demand for various destinations. Agria and Markies are particularly popular varieties. Depending on how the potatoes are stored - air or mechanical cooling - from €10 to €11 per 100 kilos up to €16 (excellent quality from box storage) is paid in some cases. Because the market prices of the varieties mentioned are rising rapidly and growers are reluctant to supply, buyers are now also inquiring about other varieties (think of Fontane).
The old crop futures market reacted positively this week by rising to € 12 per 100 kilos. This is also associated with little turnover. The interests (read open positions) are small. There is little to do on the potato futures market for speculative parties. Both old harvest (June listing) and new crop (April 2022 listing) are priced relatively high. In that sense, the 'entertainment' is on the grain futures market. where there is a lot of volatility and easy trading in and out.