The past month (May) was downright cold and wet, which means that the early potatoes have suffered quite a bit of growth retardation. This has resulted in a higher physical market price, a development that most market followers had not taken into account.
While on average less than €6,50 per 100 kiloaf grower was made for Fontane at the end of March, last week this was €12,50 for direct delivery to €16,50 for week 28. It should be noted that the demand for French fries potatoes comes from was from a limited number of buyers and that towards the end of the week (21) the mood clearly felt calmer. The settlement of the June contract next Friday, June 5 (June 4, last trading day) is not expected to reach the €11,00 level (current CS €10,80).
The significant amount of rainfall in recent weeks in the EU-4 countries has a positive effect on the main harvest. There is no mention of any drought, if there had been any. In a number of cases the precipitation was even a bit too much, but... on a number of pinpricks after (read locally too much, see photo) no real problems were reported.{{dataviewSnapshot(6_1622216812)}}
Crops burst from the ground
With a more summery weather forecast in the first weeks of June, this can provide excellent growing conditions. "The crops for the main harvest 2021 may well burst out of the ground in the coming weeks," was a comment from a grower from Southeast Brabant. The amount of rain and the transition to growing weather caused the futures market for the April 2022 contract to drop to €17,00, while the €18,00 level was still being traded a week earlier. However, for the time being the €17,00 level seems to be somewhat at the bottom of the market. There will not be much supply from growers, while the demand from professional parties (given the volume of bids) is there.
Left or right: significant area shrinkage, the end of the corona measures in sight and still increasing hunger for raw materials from processors in the EU-4 countries. Ingredients for a healthy market price for the 2021/2022 season. In the coming period, the growing season will determine what is and is not possible in terms of market price. In short, the potatoes from the main harvest have sufficient moisture for the time being and can start 'roaring' in growth. But a drowned (read gloomy mood) market is not an issue.