At the beginning of April, a price recovery started on the futures market, partly due to the cold spring. The futures market of the June contract rose from €7,50 in March to a cash settlement at €11,10 in early June. It has clearly been calmer on the potato market in recent weeks.
The current market prices for fries-suitable potatoes in the third week of June range from €10,00 per 100 kilos for Fontane in Belgium to €12,00 for Markies in the Netherlands and Germany. The current market prices seem to be set in stone and there does not seem to be much room for a higher level. From the perspective of the processors it is indicated that the positions are round during the old season. In other words: according to them, a further price increase towards, for example, €15,00, which was discussed a few weeks ago, is no longer an option.
Who can and dares to wait?
The patience of growers with potatoes still in the shed is being severely tested. Can a price jump be expected in the very last phase of the season or will we have to make do with the current price level? Or, in the worst case, will the market price fall back below €10,00? The latter scenario is not considered likely by the various market parties, but is there still a (somewhat) higher market price in the pipeline? For growers who still have something to sell, this is a question that concerns them every day. Especially in cases where the shelf life of the potatoes decreases.
The key question is whether the transition to the new early potatoes will go smoothly. In other words: are the early and mid-early potatoes sufficiently developed to make the bridge to the first potatoes of the main harvest in mid-August? A tour of the fields shows that the 'bridge' appears to be far from stable. The Premières as well as the subsequent mid-early varieties such as Felsina and Zorba can be quite disappointing in terms of kilos and size. Première's hectare yield could therefore end up in the list of most disappointing harvest years. Also take into account the significant shrinkage of the area, especially in Belgium: a decrease of 14% or 6.138 hectares versus 7.119 hectares.
There is still old harvest
For the transition from old to new harvest, the disappointing Première harvest does not necessarily have to be a major problem for the processors. After all, they can still run on old harvest. However, the disappointing harvest of the mid-early varieties so far could become a problem, which could create some space at the beginning of August. By filling the intended gap, processors can hunt more for the last potatoes, resulting in a slightly higher market price. In short: it's not over until it's over. Especially when it comes to the 2020/2021 season.