Unlike their European colleagues, American arable farmers have planted slightly more potatoes this growing season. Yet there is a threat of a shortage of potatoes for American processors. Does that offer opportunities for European growers?
In the United States, the potato area this season will reach 382.000 hectares, according to preliminary data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). That is a growth of 2,4% compared to last year, but still the second smallest area in 1 years. On average, American growers harvested 20 tons per hectare over the past 5 years. This would mean that approximately 50,2 million tons of potatoes would be harvested this year. That is a slightly larger harvest than last year but, apart from last year, the smallest harvest since 19,18.
Not an average year
But 2021 does not seem to be an average year for American growers. The northwest part of the US is struggling with... extreme heat, with the highest temperatures ever recorded of 45 degrees and more. The states of Washington and Oregon (together accounting for 22% of the potato area) are in the middle of the 'heat dome', as the Americans call the heat wave. The potatoes there have almost certainly suffered damage from the extreme heat. In Idaho, where 33% of American potatoes are grown, temperatures were slightly more moderate, but insiders there also expect crop damage due to heat.
According to insiders, the small potato harvest in the US of the 2020 harvest means that the US is already importing a relatively large number of fries. For example, Belgian factories have already sold a quarter more fries on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean in the past 12 months. Dutch, German and French chip producers are also losing more fries in America, although the increase in demand is less extreme than with the Belgians.
The knife cuts both ways
The potato shortage in the US could also turn out to be positive for European growers for the 2021/2022 season. Although the area in the EU-4 has shrunk, good growing conditions mean we are heading for an average to larger harvest. Prices on the futures market have therefore come under some pressure in recent weeks.
The shortage in the US can boost the European market in two ways: on the one hand, additional demand from the US itself. On the other hand, due to additional demand from markets that are normally served with American fries, but which now partly have to look for other suppliers.
It's just not a race yet. The Canadians are the main supplier of fries to the US and have exported significant quantities of fries to their southern neighbors in recent months. No official figures have yet been released about the Canadian acreage, but United Potato Growers of Canada expects a growth of more than 2%, which amounts to a total of approximately 150.000 hectares. In Canada, most potatoes are grown on the east side, where temperatures are much friendlier. An above-average yield certainly seems feasible there too.