These are extreme times for potato growers in different parts of Europe. The large amounts of precipitation in parts of Belgium and Germany and the south of the Netherlands cause damage to various crops. At the moment, the plots located on the Meuse are especially threatened.
Other rivers and streams have also overflowed their banks or are about to do so. On the plots in the river catchment areas, it is not so much the large amount of rain that has fallen, but rather the water that collects. The lower plots in the hilly landscape in particular have suffered damage. This inevitably causes a lot of damage, which is deeply sad for the growers this happens to.
Extent of damage still unknown
In a tour of various experts in the different areas, the total damage is already seen as substantial. However, how that matters in percentages remains to be seen. The fact is that the loss of plots due to the extreme situation results in a reduction (-5%) of the total area in the EU4. The uncertainty regarding the final potato harvest in the EU4 countries has therefore increased, which was also reflected in the movement of the futures market of the April 2022 contract. After a dip at the beginning of July to € 16,00, this has risen again towards the € 18,50 level.
The exact damage will be known in the coming week. It will then become clear whether the previously mentioned floor around € 16,00 will now be, for example, € 18,00. In short: only time will tell. Another point of attention - but which generally has no direct effect on the development of the market price - is fungal disease control.
Get early potatoes
Another important issue in the current market is the increasing concern about early potatoes. Due to the initially late spring, followed by the persistent wet and growing weather, the early potatoes have started to invest a lot of energy in developing the foliage and the kilos remain well behind the 5-year average. A very important aspect plays a role in this: few plots come close to the desired OWG. On average, the OWG on the various plots sampled in Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany remains just below or around 300 grams, which makes it difficult to fry fries.
The current situation led to a run on old potatoes in the middle of this week. While €12,50 per 100 kg was made at the beginning of the week - also the quote that Belgapom came out with - today (Friday, July 16) business is being done vigorously for €14 and €15. The question is whether there are still enough old potatoes to supply the processors until the time when they can and should switch to the early ones. Several long-term depositors now charge €20. That still seems like a bridge too far at the moment, but the leap has been made in no time.