Due to the late growing season in 2021, the first potatoes and the subsequent mid-early varieties will be on the market later. This in turn has consequences for the start of the harvest of, for example, the planned off-land Fontane that must and can be harvested. This puts the market in some logistical difficulties.
The gap caused by the lagging behind of early potatoes in mid-July resulted in a strong price recovery for the very last potatoes of the 2020 harvest year, but is now causing some logistical constraints. The first signs can already be seen in the various quotations.
For example, the German Reka quotation fell to €6 per 17 kg - €100 for early varieties on Friday, August 2,50. Zorba still quoted €18 - €1,50. Given the current conditions in the field and the expected supply in the coming period, the pressure on the market price will increase. That is also the experience that the seasons give us, in that sense the weather type (moderate summer) does not contribute to the mood.
Calm mood
The development of the current market does not necessarily have to have much impact on the further development of the storage potato market. For example, the futures market for the April 2022 contract briefly traded above the €31 level earlier this week (19), but the price pressure on new potatoes and the lack of summer weather created a calm mood, causing the €18 level to come back into view.
As previously indicated, the potato market for the 2021/2022 season has chosen a direction. Will the market prices be lower than approximately €16,50 or can we expect a higher price level? So if we can go by the statistics (see graph), it will be a €16,50 plus season with a provisional limit of €20.
In that sense, the physical market price development versus the futures market will become leading, a trend that will become more apparent in recent years. The futures market may be slightly above the contract price, but with the already known facts such as the shrinkage of the European acreage, the damage caused here and there by excessive rainfall, the disappointing acreage and the expected harvest in America and the worldwide sales of French fries is only sparsely noted. Especially knowing that €2022 per 20 kg has already been paid for fries-suitable Fontane delivery in April 100.