Despite a significant increase in acreage in the United States, the country is heading for its smallest potato harvest in 8 years. This is mainly due to the extremely hot and dry weather that has gripped the northwestern states. This offers market opportunities for Europe.
Market analysts in the US expect the country to produce a potato harvest of 18,76 million tons (french fries, table and seed potatoes) this year. If this becomes reality, it will mean a decrease of 0,2% compared to last year. Then 300.000 more tons of potatoes were harvested. A relatively small difference, but it does mean the smallest yield since 2013. The 2020 harvest year was also below average.
hectare yield
The area has grown by more than 8.500 hectares this year. In particular, more French fries potatoes have been planted due to the expansion of French fries production. What drags down the total yield is the lower yield per hectare. This amounts to 49,5 tons per hectare. Last year that was 50,75 tons. The hectare yield is 4% less than the long-term average. Such differences appear small at first glance. However, on an area of 378.500 hectares it makes a big difference.
The reason for this yield drop is the extremely dry and hot growing season. In the Pacific Northwest region, despite irrigation, growing conditions have been exceptional. This results in Washington state having a lower yield. It is the second largest potato state in the country. Production drops almost 1%, to 2 million tons.
Number 1: Idaho, also has a slightly smaller yield. This is expected to decrease by half a million tons. Yields are also declining due to drought in Colorado, North Dakota and Wisconsin. This also applies to southern and also dry California, where 8,5% fewer potatoes are harvested.
Heat damage
The American main harvest has yet to start. A lot can happen between now and the end of the harvest, analysts say. It is clear that the damage caused by drought is irreversible. In Washington State, early potatoes are harvested this period with reasonable yields. The main harvest in particular is expected to be disappointing due to record high temperatures in June. The area under cultivation in the state has increased by 2.000 hectares. This increase is offset by the lower yield.
Heat has also wreaked havoc in 'the potato state' Idaho. The area here has increased by 6.000 hectares and the harvest has now started. The significantly increased acreage somewhat compensates for the lower yield. The hectare yield is estimated to decrease by almost 3 tons per hectare. Growers who let their potatoes grow longer - in the hope of harvesting more kilos - run a greater risk of frost damage. In states where potato crops depend on natural rainfall – such as North Dakota – yields are more disappointing. The estimated yield here is 33,6 tons per hectare. Chip potatoes in particular have been hit by the extreme weather, which means that this segment (with a growth market) is short of raw materials.
What does it mean for Europe?
Despite its own large potato production, North America is a growing customer for fries from Europe. The Belgian and Dutch industries have seen their export volume increase significantly since 2019. In April this year it grew to 19.860 tonnes of product from the EU-27. Unfortunately, more recent figures are lacking. In April 2018, 3 years earlier, this was still 5.500 tons. The US and Canada cannot always supply their own markets with sufficient potato products. Specialties and high quality products in particular are exported. Thanks to the enormous consumption of chips, the country is an interesting destination.
The North American industry suffered from a raw material shortage last season. Output should be boosted by adding new chip lines. LambWeston made recent still announced that they are pumping $415 million into expanding their chip factory in Idaho.