The contrast between the Canadian potato crop in the Eastern Maritime Provinces and the Western Prairie Provinces this year is stark. That gives the harvest 2 faces. Extreme drought and heat clearly affect the yield. A larger area partly compensates for this.
This year the total potato area in Canada has increased by 5% increased. Partly due to increased demand from the chip industry, which has built additional factories and lines. This compensates for lower yields in some provinces. Market analysts estimate that the total potato harvest (french fries, table potatoes and seed potatoes) will increase by 15% compared to 2020. This strong percentage is due to the larger acreage and the very low yield last year. So it doesn't tell the whole story.
Larger hectare yield
According to an estimate from mid-August, the total volume this year is 5,33 million tonnes (177,6 million cwt). A year earlier, 4,63 million tons of potatoes were harvested. The average yield per hectare increases by more than 7% to just over 35 tons. Coupled with the 5% larger area, this yields considerably more kilos, despite dry and hot growing conditions. In the eastern provinces (Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick), growing conditions have been ideal with ample moisture and sun. The yield here is significantly better than in the west.
Prince Edward Island is the largest growing area in eastern Canada. Last year the harvest was poor due to persistent drought. This year the yields are much higher, making the harvest more than 18% larger. Conditions are also ideal for potatoes in New Brunswick. Including an increase in area, this results in a 44% larger harvest. If this becomes reality, it will be a record.
Higher yield despite drought
In Manitoba and Alberta - where most potatoes are grown - the acreage has also grown significantly. This partly compensates for the lower yield due to heat and drought. Table and seed potatoes in Manitoba have been particularly affected and irrigation is no longer possible everywhere due to a lack of water. There is talk of yield losses of between 25% and 50% for table potatoes. According to reports, chip potatoes are in better shape. The hectare yield may be 1.230 kg lower, but the total harvest size can still reach a record due to the area growth.
It has also been hot and dry in Alberta. The province is once again experiencing a heat wave. The hectare yield here is estimated to decrease by an average of 1.800 kilos. Rain has fallen, but it has been very widespread. Once again, the increase in acreage is estimated to result in a record harvest.
Things are not looking so good for the seed potatoes. There is a lot of damage there due to weather extremes. In the chip potato growing area of southern Alberta, water levels have not been this low before irrigation since 2002. The heat is causing a lot of tuber molting, insiders report. So we have to wait and see what the yield will do here. Unlike Manitoba, the harvest has not yet started.
Inventories minimal
Even with a 15% larger potato harvest, the question is whether Canada can be self-sufficient this season. Neighboring country the US is struggling with a significant problem smaller harvest – the smallest in 8 years – and American processors are expected to 'shop' in Canada to keep their factories running.
In addition, stocks of end product from the 2020 harvest are at a very low level, while the sales level is high. Due to the extreme growing conditions, more problems with quality, grading and storage are expected. Then there is always the unpredictable autumn. If frost occurs early, not everything can be harvested. That big potato harvest is still a long way off in Canada.