Potato growers in the United States are also fully engaged in the potato harvest, or have already completed it. Now that more product is in storage, a better estimate can be made of the harvest size. The new numbers point to a decline. What does this mean for the total?
The latest estimate of the total harvest size is more than 409 million cwt. This equates to 18,56 million tons. This volume includes fries, table and seed potatoes. It was still in August spoken about 18,76 million tons. So a decrease of 200.000 tons. The differences per state are large. Especially in growing areas where drought has been a major problem this season.
Shrinkage in potato states
The two largest potato states in the US – Idaho and Washington – harvest 3,2% and 5,3% less respectively. Because these are large volumes (5,92 and 4,28 million tons), this has a significant impact on the harvest balance. In percentage terms, the potato harvest in Wisconsin is shrinking the most, by 10%. Compared to 2020, the total potato volume is 2,5% smaller. The average hectare yield is 2,5 tons below the two-year average of 49 tons per hectare.
The heat in Idaho has been extreme this summer and that is reflected in the yields. Compared to the previous estimate, the yield figures have been further reduced. In addition, the acreage in this state increased by 6000 hectares to feed new chip lines. This expansion has literally evaporated due to the weather. Russet Burbank mainly talks about quality problems. The harvest is estimated to be completed by mid-October. The harvesting went smoothly under good conditions.
Also problems with rain
The story for Washington is similar, with extreme heat during the growing season here too. Here too, potato growers have planted more hectares, but this has not resulted in more tons. In the state of Wisconsin the situation is very different. Much of the harvest has been lost there due to excessive rainfall. Not only are yields lower, quality is sometimes also a problem due to the rain.
The French fries sector in particular will feel the smaller North American potato harvest. In the growing areas in Idaho and the Columbia Basin, average yields are considerably lower. In addition, the sorting is finer due to drought and quality issues can be noticed. Insiders report that factories are trying to buy up all the free potatoes they can get. The decline in production comes at a particularly bad time, because sales and exports of fries are skyrocketing.
Contract negotiations underway
In the meantime, growers have also sat down with their buyers to discuss the contracts for next season. Cultivation costs are expected to rise by 20%. Reason for both parties to start negotiations much earlier than usual. It is expected that this period will take longer before an agreement can be reached.
The most recent export figures (for August) once again show how good the export of potato products is. Compared to a year earlier, exports increased by more than 15%. This means that the level is almost the same as in 2019. The export of frozen fries in particular rose sharply, by 40%. Compared to the multi-year average, the volume is 6,5% higher. Japan and Mexico in particular are big customers of American fries.
EU-4 benefits
At the same time, the US imported a significant volume of potato products in August. This fills the gap left by our own production. The EU-4 supplied 11% more fries than last year, while imports from Canada remained the same. Next season will once again be dominated by shortages. New factories and lines cannot be sufficiently filled with potatoes. Europe can benefit from strong American demand and absence from the export scene.