With the end of the land period in sight, the physical potato market is clearly more stable. These signals can be derived, for example, from developments on the stock exchanges.
The Belgapom stock exchange committee calls the mood price-oriented and fixed. On the German Reka listing, the price for Agria and Innovator rose by €2 to €15 per 100 kilos. Earlier in the week, the starting signal was given by an increase in PotatoNL's most important categories.
There was not much commotion in the market. There was sufficient supply from the field of the planned potatoes and the lots with some quality issues resulted in a stable price for a long time of €12 per 100 kilos for Fontane to a maximum of €14,50 for other varieties.
The moment seems imminent when a price step can be made. Customers give the impression that they are fine with the market price and are in little hurry to pay more. The 'market' must take the lead in this. The postponement of a higher market price is reinforced by bringing forward already committed potatoes, which are, for example, scheduled for delivery in November or December. This can create a gap that can cause a price jump later in the season.
Special market
What is striking is the demand for Agria, which is known to have poor quality in some cases. These potatoes are generally difficult to store and can therefore meet the increasing demand 'for the time being'. What is special about the current market situation is the price movement of the futures market, which can be seen as contrary to the physical market. Earlier in week 42 it was still trading above the €21 level, but at the end of this week the market fell back to €19,70. The corona ghost seems to still be around. So when there was talk of a lockdown here and there in countries and cities (for example Moscow), confidence disappeared for a while and the market fell back.
Assuming a higher physical market in the first period of the storage season, the premium of the current futures market quotation is not special. Ultimately, the mood and direction of the physical market in the coming months will determine the April 2022 listing. You can see the following movement: if the price difference (premium) becomes too large, the slightest negative news about corona, for example, can cause the price on the futures market to buckle.