Japan needs more foreign fries this year

Potato yields in Japan are expected to be approximately 2021% lower at 2022 million tons in the 18/1,8 season, which runs from April to March. Last year the harvest amounted to 2,2 million tons, which was also a decrease of 8,1% compared to the year before. High temperatures and drought in June and July have decimated this season's harvest. The total Japanese potato harvest will therefore not be sufficient to meet the domestic demand for fries. This is what the market agency reports Tridge. In other words: the country is forced to import frozen potatoes from abroad. And it already does that a lot.

Growing imports
During the first six months of the season, Japanese imports of frozen potato products increased by 8,4% compared to the same period last year, reaching 12,87 million tons. A year earlier, chip imports during the first six months of the season amounted to 11,86 million tons. But it could be a bit worse. In the 2018/2019 season, Japanese imports of fries amounted to no less than 15,2 million tons. That is 18% more than is currently the case. A poor harvest was also the reason for higher imports.

For the entire last season, Japanese chip imports amounted to 246.950 tons. Of these, 72,3% came from the United States. That country is the largest supplier to Japan, with a market share of 52,4%. The European Union supplied 20,2% of imported fries last year. Belgium and the Netherlands were the most important players on our continent. Another 6% was imported from Canada. Japan now has a global market share of 7,4% in the import of frozen potatoes.

Earlier this year, the shortage of frozen potato producers caused Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) no fries could sell more. Due to logistical restrictions due to the coronavirus and a low domestic supply, raw materials were no longer available in various branches. The European Union can benefit from this, but will not be able to take over the position of the United States. These two countries have concluded a new trade agreement since last year. Since April this year, the rates on fries have expired. This leaves the United States without a competitive advantage, but now experiences the same tariff environment as the European Union and Canada.

Not yet at pre-pandemic levels
Tridge analysts also expect rising import figures for the rest of the year. After all, domestic production will cause a shortage on the market. The export prospects for the leading potato countries, such as the United States, Belgium and the Netherlands, therefore remain positive. The question is whether a level before the corona pandemic is possible. This doubt is partly due to the new closures of catering establishments. This could have an effect on Japanese demand.