Based on figures from the first stock measurement for ware potatoes by VTA, it can be concluded that the yields are lower than previously thought. The barns are empty and especially free potatoes are lacking. What does this mean for the long-term market opportunities?
The first of three stock inventories was carried out among a permanent group of VTA members in mid-November. This shows that the stock of consumption potatoes is 15% below the level of the 2020 harvest year. The stock is also 11% smaller compared to the five-year average.
Yield lower
In September, VTA members estimated their average yield at 49,7 tons per hectare. Based on the stock inventory, this figure amounts to 48,5 tonnes net. There is a wide spread among the hectare yields. This ranges from 34 to 64 tons per hectare. Overall, VTA says that revenues are 5% lower compared to last year. Because the area has also decreased by 6,5%, the total harvest is 11% lower than last season and 10,5% lower than the five-year average.
Less delivered, more sold
On November 15, the participants had delivered 15% of their potatoes. In absolute tonnes, this is more than 16% more than last season and 5% less than the multi-year average. The absolute stock remaining in storage is also lower: 15% (compared to last season) and 11% (five-year average).
65% of the total stock has been sold. Last year that was 57%. The free stock is therefore below average. If you add the percentage sold and delivered, 30% of the consumption potatoes of VTA members remain free. Normally that is about 40%. The next inventory round will follow in mid-February.
Positive for physical market
What does this mean for the market in the long term? In the current market it is already visible that processors are trying to get their hands on potatoes. Some factories will start new processing lines during this period - or early next year. They need raw materials. Looking at the smaller free stock in our country and at the Belgen then the long-term market opportunities in the physical market are good.
Bear in mind that the VTA figures are now a month old (reference date November 15). In the period between the measurement moment and now, buyers have been busy getting their hands on more free potatoes, especially of the premium varieties. Tightness at the tail end of the season is therefore a plausible scenario. The behavior of factories supports this. There is more focus on early potatoes.