Although you would say that the physical market price should be able to cautiously move to a higher level, there is little evidence of that in terms of signal effect. Virtually all potato quotations in Europe - from the French RNM to the German Reka - have shown little change in recent weeks, although the mood is generally described as 'price-holding'.
The futures market quote for the April 2022 contract also remains around the €20 level. And although the confidence among the various market parties about the price development towards the first half of 2022 is quite high, as indicated earlier, this is not or hardly translated into the current daily market.
One reason for keeping the potato market 'tame' is surely corona, because imagine that new measures will be introduced, resulting in possible loss of sales. But the supply has also been properly mapped out by customers, for example batches that are difficult or even impossible to store. If a batch of potatoes 'knocks' on the door of the storage facility, they must be delivered and paid for at prices such as those put on the table by Belgapom every Friday, for example, if it concerns a Belgian grower. There will still be pressure from potatoes that have to be delivered in the coming period because growers decide not to treat the lots with sprout inhibitors. If you believe the rumors, the real next step of the market price to a higher level can only be expected after Carnival (mid-February).
Signal to buy is postponed
Of course, the market can make a move sooner (in the next eight weeks), but that will depend on (again) the corona specter, but also whether all processors have their affairs (read: positions) in order. As soon as people have to go into the market too ostentatiously to buy potatoes, this will be visible, for example, in the different quotations and in the Netherlands in the input to the PAT. In order to postpone the signal of 'the market can take steps higher' for as long as possible, potatoes are purchased for delivery at a later date (March), but they can still be delivered more quickly if that proves to be necessary, suppose January.
These types of transactions fall outside the delivery period on which PotatoNL bases itself and thus cloud the picture of the market. These transactions in the Netherlands can be seen on the PAT overview. However, it is not known when the batches will actually be delivered. Purchasing consignments for later deliveries and ultimately delivering them earlier is a well-known way of doing business and does not help the development of the daily market. The fact is of course that gaps are being created in stocks for later in the season, which should lead to a higher market price by then (March, April and the end of the season). The customers know this too, of course, but apparently the motto is used: whoever lives, who cares.