The potato market currently appears to be cooling off somewhat with ten days left before the start of March. After the significant jump from the PotatoNL quotation on Monday 13 February with an average of almost €1 per 2 kilos for potatoes suitable for chips for category 3 and 100, the quotations (including PCA/Fiwap, RNM and Reka) increased somewhat in the rest of the week. calmer. The fact was that the bottom of PotatoNL in particular had lagged behind, so some corrections had to be made.
The potato market has taken a big step up since the end of last year. This is clearly reflected in the cash settlement (derived from the various stock exchange listings in the EU-4 countries), which traded less than €15 at the beginning of December last year against €20,80 on Thursday 17 February. An increase of no less than €6, or 30%! It is logical that a market will then decline somewhat. According to the experience of the buyers, a further price increase in the short term will not lead to more supply. It is not inconceivable that the market can take further steps at a later stage of the storage season, but first experience the reaction (read: supply) of growers who will still provide supply. In a market that is stabilizing somewhat and perhaps tending to retreat a bit, there is always some extra supply. How large that supply will be versus the hunger for potatoes remains to be seen.
What will be the sequel?
A next step of the potato market later in the storage season could be €2022, according to the close of the futures market of the April 18 contract. The close of week 22 of the April listing is only €7 higher than the most current CS which, as mentioned earlier, came in at €1,20 this week. In that sense, the expected value (€20,80) is limited. In the physical market, the trend is currently also to purchase or pay for potatoes for direct delivery in many cases, so that it is difficult to indicate what the trend of the potato market will be for the coming months. Drop back, remain stable or just take another step towards €1,20 and higher...