Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been importing many French fries and other potato products. Dutch exporters did good business with the country. Table potatoes have also crossed the border more often. With the closing of many fast food chains, the figures will look very different in the coming period.
The export figures to Russia include the recovery from the corona pandemic, which is partly responsible for volume growth. In the three months leading up to the invasion at the end of February, Russia's import of fries was 40% higher than a year earlier. The Netherlands in particular has done good business there. In January, the export of fries was two and a half times higher than a year earlier. More than 30% of Russian chip imports come from the Netherlands.
Not all fast food chains closed
Closing popular fast food chains in Russia will not happen without a fight. Some chains – such as Restaurant Brands International – are being thwarted by their Russian partners in implementing their decision. RBI is the company behind Burger King. His Russian business partner Alexander Kolobov refuses to close the doors of eight hundred restaurants, CEO David Shear said last week.
Things are different at McDonald's. This global group has 850 restaurants in the country, 84% of which are owned. At the beginning of March, the Chicago company decided to close its doors. In 1990, McDonald's was the first Western fast food chain to open a restaurant in the then USSR. Reportedly, 36.000 people queued up to order a portion of fries and a Big Mac after the opening.
Other fast food chains such as Subway, Dunkin' Donuts and pizza chain Papa John's are having more difficulty closing restaurants. They are usually partly or fully in Russian hands. Because little or no fries are consumed there, this does not affect the potato sector.
80% more fries imports this year
Russia imported more than 2021 tons of fries in the 2022-100.000 season. That is 40% more than in the previous twelve months. In the first month of this year - the last month for which figures are available - imports even increased by almost 80%. The Netherlands, Belgium and France all saw a sharp increase in the volume of frozen fries. The price paid also increased.
In February, the effect of the war is probably not yet fully visible in the export figures for chips. Undoubtedly from March onwards. Russia has not yet closed its borders to potato products. After all, the country is not self-sufficient in this area. Recent construction plans for the processing industry are currently on hold. Russia cannot do without the EU for the supply of fries.
Also more table potatoes
Table potatoes are mainly imported from friendly countries. Belarus is the largest supplier and these export figures are also at a significantly higher level. In the last months of last year, a good 35.000 tons were imported. In January, potato imports were 80% higher. Georgia is another major supplier, next to Egypt. The latter especially for early potatoes. Belarus is – or rather was – also used as a backdoor for Ukraine to supply Russia.
Another potato variety that is currently moving in that direction is seed potatoes for the new harvest. The export counter is currently at 0 from the Netherlands. From the 2020 harvest, 2.552 tons were exported to Russia. That's a meager volume. In previous years, almost 5.000 tons were usually imported. These quantities are in stark contrast to the period before 2014. In 2010, almost 28.000 tons of seed potatoes were imported. HZPC is a major supplier of starting material. It has its own breeding company in Saint Petersburg and also exports material through their subsidiary in Finland. CEO Gerard Backx recently said know that it does not stop deliveries. The company sees it as its duty to maintain the food supply, including for the Russians. More agricultural concerns have that statement made. Agrico, among others, also exports seed potatoes to Russia. The company from Emmeloord previously said that it is not receiving any freight across the border at the moment.
The trading houses also have to miss out on exports to Ukraine. The fighting and closed borders make it almost impossible to get trucks across the border or to visit Black Sea ports. This country has a relatively small professional potato cultivation and purchases a varying amount of seed potatoes every year. In 2020 this was 2.000 tons and the year before 3.850 tons.
Consequences unknown
What the coming months will look like is very uncertain and highly dependent on war developments and possible political choices. Both from the EU and Russia. The news is mainly focused on grain. However, the impact on all segments of the potato market is also significant. There is a reasonable chance that Ukraine will hardly be able to set up professional potato cultivation this year. Russia is undoubtedly trying to do just that in order to be less dependent on European imports. For other needs it can rely on non-European allies in the world. This may not be available for potatoes and potato products.