The potato area will also decrease in 2022 in the EU-4 and Poland. The fact that fewer ware potatoes are being planted is a fact. Shifts can be seen per segment. In this annual analysis, we highlight the six most important countries in Europe and what the potato acreage is doing here. Exclusively for subscribers of Boerenbusiness.
Never before has it been so difficult to make a thorough estimate of the potato area in the EU-4. After five years of solid growth, the European ware potato area showed a decline of 2021% in 5. Despite the ambitions of potato processors, growers did not want to grow the same amount (or more) of potatoes. This will be no different in 2022. It is mainly the higher cultivation costs that contribute to this. In addition, the availability of rental land is smaller and other crops sometimes offer an attractive and, above all, less capital-intensive alternative.
What does the European area amount to?
Boerenbusiness Together with the market experts from DCA, has made an analysis of the potato area in the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany (the EU-4). We also include Poland. The United Kingdom is traditionally included in the EU-5. This country is playing an increasingly smaller role in the field of chip potato cultivation and has become further alienated from the European stage after Brexit.
In 2021, the area of consumption potatoes in the EU-4 amounted to 507.820 hectares. The current estimate is that a decline of up to 5% will be visible across Europe this year. This means an area of 482.429 hectares (-25.390 hectares). That is the smallest area since 2017. If we calculate with the five-year average yield of 43,84 tons per hectare, this theoretically means 21,14 million tons of potatoes. This quantity is well below the optimum for the European potato market. Of course that is just looking at coffee grounds. Because, you calculate with a top yield of 50 tons per hectare (2017) or a dramatically poor 37 tons (2018). Yields can become the lowest ever in a bad growing season.
Shifting segments, fries stable
What is playing a role in many countries is a shift in the area of chip potatoes. Especially in France and Germany. Chip factories are very active in contracting more potatoes. This is at the expense of the area of table potatoes and, to a lesser extent, potato chips. A reduction in the entire area does not necessarily mean fewer chip potatoes.
Netherlands: fewer potatoes again
Last year, the area of consumption potatoes decreased by almost 5.000 hectares in the Netherlands. Good for a 6,5% shrinkage, bringing the surface area to 72.000 hectares. The cultivation of seed potatoes and starch potatoes grew slightly. For this season, DCA analysts estimate that the total area will decrease by 3% to 4%. Good for 2.160 to 2.880 hectares. A slight shift is visible in the different segments. Slightly more grain has been sown, but the reduced availability of rental land for livestock farmers is mainly causing shrinkage.
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Belgium: significantly fewer potatoes in Flanders
Belgium recorded the largest decline in the area in Europe last year. Once again we expect the largest decrease here. In 2021 this amounted to 7,8%. For this year, DCA is thinking of a decrease of 8% to 10% in Flanders and 1% to 2% fewer potatoes in Wallonia. The reason for this is the tight availability of rental land in Flanders as a result of changing legislation. In Wallonia, cultivation is often in the hands of large professional growers. Supported by processors' hunger for potatoes, no major decline is expected here. This means that nationwide, potato cultivation will decrease by approximately 5.580 hectares to 77.180 hectares in total. The smallest area since 2015.
France: chip potato cultivation stable
Once again, it is France where the greatest promise for chip potato cultivation lies. European processors are investing heavily in this. Think of new factories or extensive production lines in the Belgian-French border region. Based on information from insiders, we expect a small decrease in the total potato area. This shrinkage is mainly due to table potatoes. Growers are disappointed in market developments and are switching to chip potatoes. A shrinkage of up to 2% is expected. Good for over 3.000 hectares, bringing the total to 150.800 hectares. The smallest surface area since 2017.
Germany: more focus on dual-purpose varieties
An internal shift is also noticeable for the potato area in Germany. Fewer table and chip potatoes in favor of chip potato cultivation. In northwestern Lower Saxony it is also noticeable that growers are increasingly betting on dual-purpose varieties that can be sold to the chip industry as well as flakes and starch producers. The shrinkage is therefore not so much in the chip potato area. Insiders expect a maximum shrinkage of 2% on the total. Good for almost 4.000 hectares, bringing the total to 195.820 hectares.
We may see the largest decline in potato acreage in Poland. We already have one about this analysis made. Insiders mention significant percentages between 20% and 30% with which potato cultivation is declining. Again, mainly with table and chip potatoes. Processors in the country sell a relatively large amount of product to Ukraine and Russia. Those markets have now almost completely disappeared. More potatoes from Germany are required to keep Poland's potato industries running.
Drama unfolds in England
The potato area in the United Kingdom has been declining for years and this will also be the case in 2022. A decrease of about 3% of the total area is expected. Various segments are having a hard time, such as... fish & chips industry. This sector is in the biggest crisis ever. Of the 10.000 restaurants, 3.000 are at risk of having to close their doors. High energy prices, costs for frying oil and fish, which is often imported from Russia, are to blame for this.
Anyone who takes a helicopter view of the European potato market - and especially for French fries potatoes - will taste less negativism than was the case at the turn of the year. Cultivation costs have increased enormously. Percentages of 20% to 30% are not uncommon. Fertilizer and energy in particular are major cost items, but all prices have increased. Contract prices have partly compensated for this.
No occasional cultivation
Growers generally have good expectations of the open market next season. This is also evident from the price of the April 2023 contract on the potato futures market. Despite the fact that seed potatoes are widely available and factories make significant price concessions, fortune seekers are hard to find. The expiry of the current April contract will probably not provoke much occasional cultivation. Potato processors have done everything they can to motivate growers, but that has not been enough. The effect is noticeable, especially in France and Germany, that more French fries potatoes are being grown compared to other varieties.
Conclusions