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Analysis Potatoes

What does sideways movement in the potato market mean?

20 May 2022 - 10 comments

The potato market is quiet this week. Most chip shops are in no rush to buy and sit back in anticipation of potential offerings.

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Belgapom was trading unchanged this week at €25, with the comment that the market is calm. Often the 'quiet' announcement is a preliminary announcement of a possible decline. Whether that will happen now remains to be seen. However, slightly higher transactions were reported this week for Innovator, purchased by a Belgian processor from a Dutch grower. Apparently there are still gaps to be closed for various processors.

Innovator and Fontane
The mentioned transaction from Innovator was traded for €27 taken out and the Dutch PAT list reports transactions of €26 for Innovator. There appears to be little interest in the sale of Fontane at the moment. Despite the good processing figures, coverage appears to be in order at the moment. For delivery before mid-June, business was done for €28,00 35/on from the mechanical cooling.

The rain this week and next weekend has also given the market more confidence that the early potatoes are having a growth spurt and are now developing well. The confidence in being able to start with the early potatoes on time seems to have increased somewhat.

Futures market is a good indicator
With the stabilization of the market, it also seems easier for the grower to release his product. The warm days make storage more difficult (and more expensive), with growers succumbing due to the approaching end of the season and the 'high' price. It is striking that there is currently not much demand for the month of June from the various processors. The futures market shows flawlessly how the market is doing. The June quotation remains stuck around €25, with buying interest towards €24 and selling interest at €25 and higher, which means that the trade does not come together.

Hedging offer sought after
The new harvest is also under slight pressure due to the rain that has fallen this week and will continue to fall. The showers can sometimes be heavy locally, which means that there are also places that receive moderate rainfall. More rain looks likely to fall next weekend, but drought seems to be gaining the upper hand again next week. A futures market lower than €21 does not seem to be an option at the moment. Growers and traders report that potatoes can still be contracted to chip processors at last winter's levels (and sometimes more), so that hedging supply below €21 is not expected.{{dataviewSnapshot(2_1653035872)}}

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