The worldwide production and sale of French fries has left the consequences of the corona pandemic far behind. The green figures will continue to pile up in the first months of 2022. The Netherlands – which lost most of its export share – is making a strong comeback.
Earlier already pale that the recovery of global French fries production and export has been very good, with a record 8,5 million tons of finished product in 2021. 14% more than in 2020. In the first two months of this year, producers have further expanded this position. During the current export season, from 1 August, the worldwide export counter stood at almost 1 million tons on reference date 4,2 March. This is 17% compared to the same period a year earlier.
The Netherlands is recovering strongly
This is evidenced by data from the Harmonized Trading System. This also breaks the old record, dating from the 2019-2020 season. At that time, 4 million tons of frozen chips were exported worldwide during the same period. The Belgian and Dutch French fries producers are the two countries that are fully responsible for this growth. Our country in particular has shown a strong recovery, after the heavy blows the sector received last season.
In the current season, the EU-5 (the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France and Poland) accounts for 2,9 million tons of product. This means that the old record of the 2019-2020 season has been achieved by a hair's breadth. It is a fifth more than last season. The share of the Netherlands in this amounts to more than 880.000 tons, according to world trade data. This is 32,5% more than the previous season and an absolute record. Belgium is in pole position with 1,44 million tons.
Share in world trade grows
Exporters in the United States and Canada have not shown such a recovery. The volumes exported by them are below those before the corona pandemic. There is also a lot of demand for chips in North America, and Belgium and the Netherlands are taking advantage of this. The EU-5 controls a total of 66,5% of the world trade in frozen chips. That is also a record market share.
Over the past ten years, the global demand for French fries has grown by an average of 7% per year. This growth percentage has not yet been achieved in the current season. Not so much because of lack of demand, but more because not enough potatoes are available. Logistics is also a bottleneck for the sector, which means that more volume cannot be exported. This applies to both the EU and North America.
What will sales be next season?
Insiders find it difficult to predict what the rest of this and next season will bring to the world fries trade. Food inflation is a hot topic and it is uncertain how it will affect French fries consumption. The global economy is also being hit on other fronts. What about the situation in Russia, where McDonald's disappears from the street scene. The consequences for the French fries sector can be enormous. Russia is one of the countries that has shown the largest growth in volume this season. The country hoarded a lot of chips in the months before the war.
Poland is hit hardest by the lack of the Ukrainian and Russian markets. These two destinations are the biggest customers. Until March, the country exported 208.000 tons of frozen chips, which is almost 30% more than the previous season. Of this, 123.000 tons were destined for the two countries mentioned above. With 770.000 tonnes, the UK is the largest customer outside the EU for chips from the EU5, followed by Saudi Arabia and Brazil. Russia is in sixth place and Ukraine in 27th place.